Table 3.
Relationship of plasma lipid (PGE2), PBL inflammatory gene transcriptome and demographic traits with radiographic joint space narrowing (JSN) over 24 months in a multivariate analysis.
| Combined Predictors | AUC Estimate | AUC 95% Confidence Interval | p value | p value adjusted | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JSN>0mm vs. JSN≤ 0mm (N=72 vs.39) | Age, Gender, BMI | 0.5 | 0.39 | 0.62 | 0.473 | 0.473 |
| Age, Gender, BMI, COX-2 | 0.65 | 0.55 | 0.76 | 0.002 | 0.017 | |
| Age, Gender, BMI, IL-1β | 0.51 | 0.39 | 0.62 | 0.446 | 0.464 | |
| Age, Gender, BMI, TNFα | 0.44 | 0.33 | 0.55 | 0.153 | 0.229 | |
| Age, Gender, BMI, COX-2, IL-1β | 0.65 | 0.54 | 0.76 | 0.005 | 0.022 | |
| Age, Gender, BMI, COX-2, TNFα | 0.61 | 0.5 | 0.72 | 0.027 | 0.072 | |
| Age, Gender, BMI, IL-1β, TNFα | 0.46 | 0.35 | 0.58 | 0.272 | 0.295 | |
| Age, Gender, BMI, COX-2, IL-1β, TNFα | 0.61 | 0.5 | 0.72 | 0.030 | 0.072 | |
| Age, Gender, BMI, COX-2, IL-1β, TNFα, PGE2 | 0.59 | 0.48 | 0.7 | 0.062 | 0.107 | |
| JSN>0.2mm vs. JSN≤ 0mm (N=64 vs. 39) | Age, Gender, BMI | 0.57 | 0.46 | 0.68 | 0.094 | 0.149 |
| Age, Gender, BMI, COX-2 | 0.67 | 0.56 | 0.78 | 0.002 | 0.017 | |
| Age, Gender, BMI, IL-1β | 0.6 | 0.48 | 0.71 | 0.047 | 0.089 | |
| Age, Gender, BMI, TNFα | 0.54 | 0.42 | 0.65 | 0.257 | 0.295 | |
| Age, Gender, BMI, COX-2, IL-1β | 0.67 | 0.56 | 0.77 | 0.001 | 0.017 | |
| Age, Gender, BMI, COX-2, TNFα | 0.65 | 0.55 | 0.76 | 0.003 | 0.017 | |
| Age, Gender, BMI, IL-1β, TNFα | 0.56 | 0.44 | 0.67 | 0.174 | 0.246 | |
| Age, Gender, BMI, COX-2, IL-1β, TNFα | 0.66 | 0.54 | 0.77 | 0.003 | 0.018 | |
| Age, Gender, BMI, COX-2, IL-1β, TNFα, PGE2 | 0.63 | 0.52 | 0.74 | 0.008 | 0.032 | |
| JSN>0.5mm vs. JSN≤ 0mm (N=44 vs. 39) | Age, Gender, BMI | 0.55 | 0.43 | 0.68 | 0.211 | 0.262 |
| Age, Gender, BMI, COX-2 | 0.62 | 0.49 | 0.74 | 0.032 | 0.072 | |
| Age, Gender, BMI, IL-1β | 0.56 | 0.43 | 0.68 | 0.182 | 0.246 | |
| Age, Gender, BMI, TNFα | 0.54 | 0.41 | 0.67 | 0.273 | 0.295 | |
| Age, Gender, BMI, COX-2, IL-1β | 0.64 | 0.52 | 0.76 | 0.012 | 0.041 | |
| Age, Gender, BMI, COX-2, TNFα | 0.61 | 0.48 | 0.73 | 0.048 | 0.089 | |
| Age, Gender, BMI, IL-1β, TNFα | 0.55 | 0.42 | 0.68 | 0.2136 | 0.2621 | |
| Age, Gender, BMI, COX-2, IL-1β, TNFα | 0.63 | 0.51 | 0.75 | 0.02 | 0.06 | |
| Age, Gender, BMI, COX-2, IL-1β, TNFα, PGE2 | 0.61 | 0.48 | 0.73 | 0.0496 | 0.0893 | |
For measuring a biomarker’s predictivity for radiographic progression in medial knee OA based on threshold of JSN progression (>0.0, >0.2 and >0.5 mm/24 months) as outcomes, we used the ROC curve with multivariate predictive model support vector machines. The null model against which all other predictive models are compared and p-values are calculated is the random model (i.e., coin-flipping model). The random model has AUC of 0.5.