Table A4.
Baseline and future number of deaths attributable to heat (Mheat) and cold (Mcold), at baseline (1981–2000) and in 2050 (KNMI’14 climate scenarios), the Netherlands: model runs with and without adaptation scenarios.
| Climate Scenario | Adaptation Scenario ** | Number of Deaths Attributable to Heat (% of Baseline) | Number of Deaths Attributable to Cold (% of Baseline) |
|---|---|---|---|
| baseline | 1511 (100%) | 11,727 (100%) | |
| 2050 no climate change * | n.a. | 2299 (152%) | 17,846 (152%) |
| KNMI’14 GL * | no adaptation | 3329 (220%) | 15,733 (134%) |
| I | 2230 (148%) | 17,965 (153% | |
| II | 3002 (199%) | 17,226 (147%) | |
| III | 2011 (133%) | 19,657 (168%) | |
| KNMI’14 GH * | no adaptation | 3752 (248%) | 15,020 (128%) |
| I | 2222 (147% | 18,052 (154%) | |
| II | 3384 (224%) | 16,447 (140%) | |
| III | 2004 (133%) | 19,753 (168%) | |
| KNMI’14 WL * | no adaptation | 4380 (290%) | 13,699 (117%) |
| I | 2083 (138%) | 17,886 (153%) | |
| II | 3952 (262%) | 15,007 (128%) | |
| III | 1879 (124%) | 19,572 (167%) | |
| KNMI’14 WH * | no adaptation | 5061 (335%) | 13,149 (112%) |
| I | 2295 (152%) | 17,872 (152%) | |
| II | 4567 (302%) | 14,406 (123%) | |
| III | 2070 (137%) | 19,556 (167%) |
* Only accounting for the anticipated increasing trend in annual mortality up to 2050 (2050 model runs applying baseline attributable fractions to future number of annual deaths); ** Adaptation scenario I = shift in optimum temperature; Adaptation scenario II = changing sensitivity to heat and cold; Adaptation scenario III = shift in optimum temperature as well as changing sensitivity to heat and cold.