Table 1.

Categories of abrupt changes in the CMIP5 model ensemble

Category	Type	Region	Models and scenarios
I (switch)	1. sea ice bimodality	Southern Ocean	BCC-CSM1-1 (all), BCC-CSM1-1-m (all), IPSL-CM5A-LR (all), GFDL-CM3 (all)
II (forced	2. sea ice bimodality	Southern Ocean	GISS-E2-H (rcp45), GISS-E2-R (rcp45, rcp85)
transition to switch)	3. abrupt change in productivity	Indian Ocean off	IPSL-CM5A-LR (rcp85)
		East Africa
III (rapid change to new state)	4. winter sea ice collapse	Arctic Ocean	MPI-ESM-LR (rcp85), CSIRO-MK3-6-0 (rcp85), CNRM-CM5 (rcp85), CCSM4 (rcp85), HadGEM2-ES (rcp8.5)
	5. abrupt sea ice decrease	regions of high-latitude oceans	CanESM2 (rcp85), CMCC-CESM (rcp85), FGOALS-G2 (rcp85), MRI-CGCM3 (all rcp)
	6. abrupt increase in sea ice	region in Southern Ocean	MRI-CGCM3 (rcp45)
	7. local collapse of convection	Labrador Sea, North Atlantic	GISS-E2-R (all rcp), GFDL-ESM2G (his), CESM1-CAM (rcp85), MIROC5 (rcp26), CSIRO-MK3-6-0 (rcp26)
	8. total collapse of convection	North Atlantic	FIO-ESM (all rcp)
	9. permafrost collapse	Arctic	HADGEM2-ES (rcp85)
	10. abrupt snow melt	Tibetan Plateau	GISS-E2-H (rcp45, rcp85), GISS-E2-R (rcp45, rcp85)
	11. abrupt change in vegetation	Eastern Sahel	BNU-ESM (all rcp)
IV (gradual change to new state)	12. boreal forest expansion	Arctic	HadGEM2-ES (rcp85)
	13. forest dieback	Amazon	HadGEM2-ES (rcp85), IPSL-CM5A-LR (rcp85)

Four categories are listed by type (column 2), region (column 3), and climate model and scenario (column 4). Fig. 2 provides examples of abrupt shifts for each category.