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. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2016 Nov 1.
Published in final edited form as: Gastroenterology. 2015 Aug 4;149(6):1425–1437. doi: 10.1053/j.gastro.2015.07.042

Table 3.

The Appropriate Ages to Stop Colonoscopy Screening: Results by Screening History, Comorbidity Status, and Background Risk for CRC.1

WHITE FEMALES
SCREENING HISTORY
Negative screening colonoscopy
10 years prior		 Negative screening colonoscopy
15 years prior		 Negative screening colonoscopy
20 years prior		 No prior screening
COMORBIDITY STATUS2 COMORBIDITY STATUS2 COMORBIDITY STATUS2 COMORBIDITY STATUS2
RR CRC3 No
comorbidity		 Moderate
comorbidity		 Severe
comorbidity		 RR CRC3 No
comorbidity		 Moderate
comorbidity		 Severe
comorbidity		 RR CRC3 No
comorbidity		 Moderate
comorbidity		 Severe
comorbidity		 RR CRC3 No
comorbidity		 Moderate
comorbidity		 Severe
comorbidity
0.5 <665 <665 <665 0.5 70 67 <665 0.5 73 70 67 0.5 81 78 74
0.6 69 66 <665 0.6 73 70 67 0.6 76 73 70 0.6 82 79 76
0.7 72 69 <665 0.7 76 72 70 0.7 78 75 72 0.7 83 80 77
0.8 74 71 68 0.8 78 74 71 0.8 80 76 73 0.8 83 81 78
0.9 76 73 70 0.9 79 76 73 0.9 80 78 74 0.9 84 81 78
1.0 78 75 71 1.0 80 77 74 1.0 81 79 76 1.0 84 82 79
1.2 80 77 74 1.2 81 79 76 1.2 82 80 77 1.2 85 82 80
1.4 81 79 75 1.4 83 80 77 1.4 83 81 78 1.4 85 83 80
1.6 82 80 77 1.6 83 81 78 1.6 84 82 79 1.6 86 83 81
1.8 83 81 78 1.8 84 82 79 1.8 85 82 80 1.8 86 83 81
2.0 84 81 78 2.0 85 82 80 2.0 85 83 80 2.0 86 84 81
2.54 85 82 80 2.54 85 83 81 2.54 86 84 81 2.54 87 84 82
3.04 86 83 81 3.04 86 84 82 3.04 86 84 82 3.04 87 85 82
3.54 86 84 82 3.54 87 85 82 3.54 87 85 82 3.54 87 85 83
WHITE FEMALES
SCREENING HISTORY
Negative screening colonoscopy 10 years prior Negative screening colonoscopy 15 years prior Negative screening colonoscopy 20 years prior No prior screening
COMORBIDITY STATUS2 COMORBIDITY STATUS2 COMORBIDITY STATUS2 COMORBIDITY STATUS2
RR CRC3 No comorbidity Moderate comorbidity Severe comorbidity RR CRC3 No comorbidity Moderate comorbidity Severe comorbidity RR CRC3 No comorbidity Moderate comorbidity Severe comorbidity RR CRC3 No comorbidity Moderate comorbidity Severe comorbidity
0.5 <665 <665 <665 0.5 70 68 <665 0.5 73 71 67 0.5 81 79 74
0.6 69 66 <665 0.6 73 70 67 0.6 76 73 69 0.6 82 80 76
0.7 71 69 <665 0.7 75 73 69 0.7 78 75 71 0.7 83 80 77
0.8 74 71 67 0.8 78 74 70 0.8 80 77 72 0.8 83 81 77
0.9 76 73 69 0.9 79 76 72 0.9 80 77 73 0.9 83 81 78
1.0 78 74 70 1.0 80 77 73 1.0 81 78 75 1.0 84 81 78
1.2 80 77 73 1.2 81 79 75 1.2 82 80 76 1.2 84 82 79
1.4 81 79 75 1.4 82 80 76 1.4 83 80 77 1.4 85 82 79
1.6 82 80 76 1.6 83 81 77 1.6 83 81 78 1.6 85 83 80
1.8 83 80 77 1.8 83 81 78 1.8 84 82 79 1.8 85 83 80
2.0 83 81 78 2.0 84 82 79 2.0 84 82 79 2.0 85 83 80
2.54 84 82 80 2.54 85 83 80 2.54 85 83 80 2.54 86 83 81
3.04 85 83 80 3.04 85 83 81 3.04 86 83 81 3.04 86 84 81
3.54 85 83 81 3.54 86 84 81 3.54 86 84 81 3.54 86 84 81
4.04 86 84 81 4.04 86 84 81 4.04 86 84 81 4.04 86 84 82
4.54 86 84 82 4.54 86 84 82 4.54 87 84 82 4.54 87 84 82
4.94 86 84 82 4.94 87 84 82 4.94 87 84 82 4.94 87 84 82
BLACK FEMALES
SCREENING HISTORY
Negative screening colonoscopy 10 years prior Negative screening colonoscopy 15 years prior Negative screening colonoscopy 20 years prior No prior screening
COMORBIDITY STATUS2 COMORBIDITY STATUS2 COMORBIDITY STATUS2 COMORBIDITY STATUS2
RR CRC3 No comorbidity Moderate comorbidity Severe comorbidity RR CRC3 No comorbidity Moderate comorbidity Severe comorbidity RR CRC3 No comorbidity Moderate comorbidity Severe comorbidity RR CRC3 No comorbidity Moderate comorbidity Severe comorbidity
0.4 <665 <665 <665 0.4 <665 <665 <665 0.4 68 <665 <665 0.4 80 78 73
0.5 <665 <665 <665 0.5 69 67 <665 0.5 72 70 <665 0.5 81 79 75
0.6 68 <665 <665 0.6 73 70 <665 0.6 75 73 69 0.6 82 80 77
0.7 72 70 <665 0.7 75 73 68 0.7 77 75 71 0.7 83 81 77
0.8 74 72 67 0.8 77 75 70 0.8 79 77 72 0.8 84 81 78
0.9 76 74 69 0.9 78 76 72 0.9 80 78 74 0.9 84 82 79
1.0 77 75 71 1.0 79 78 73 1.0 81 79 75 1.0 85 82 80
1.2 79 77 73 1.2 81 79 76 1.2 82 80 77 1.2 85 83 80
1.4 80 79 75 1.4 82 80 77 1.4 83 81 78 1.4 85 83 81
1.6 81 80 77 1.6 83 81 78 1.6 84 82 79 1.6 86 84 81
1.8 82 80 77 1.8 83 81 79 1.8 84 82 80 1.8 86 84 82
2.04 83 81 78 2.04 84 82 80 2.04 85 83 80 2.04 86 84 82
2.54 84 82 80 2.54 85 83 81 2.54 86 84 82 2.54 87 85 82
3.04 85 83 81 3.04 86 84 82 3.04 86 84 82 3.04 87 86 83
3.54 86 84 82 3.54 87 85 83 3.54 87 86 83 3.54 88 86 83
BLACK FEMALES
SCREENING HISTORY
Negative screening colonoscopy 10 years prior Negative screening colonoscopy 15 years prior Negative screening colonoscopy 20 years prior No prior screening
COMORBIDITY STATUS2 COMORBIDITY STATUS2 COMORBIDITY STATUS2 COMORBIDITY STATUS2
RR CRC3 No comorbidity Moderate comorbidity Severe comorbidity RR CRC3 No comorbidity Moderate comorbidity Severe comorbidity RR CRC3 No comorbidity Moderate comorbidity Severe comorbidity RR CRC3 No comorbidity Moderate comorbidity Severe comorbidity
0.5 <665 <665 <665 0.5 68 <665 <665 0.5 71 69 <665 0.5 80 78 72
0.6 66 <665 <665 0.6 71 69 <665 0.6 74 71 67 0.6 81 79 73
0.7 70 68 <665 0.7 74 71 67 0.7 76 73 68 0.7 82 80 75
0.8 72 70 <665 0.8 76 72 67 0.8 77 74 70 0.8 82 80 75
0.9 74 71 67 0.9 77 74 70 0.9 79 76 71 0.9 83 81 76
1.0 76 73 68 1.0 78 76 70 1.0 80 78 72 1.0 84 81 76
1.2 78 75 70 1.2 80 78 72 1.2 81 79 73 1.2 84 81 76
1.4 79 78 72 1.4 81 79 73 1.4 82 80 75 1.4 84 81 77
1.6 80 78 73 1.6 82 80 75 1.6 82 81 76 1.6 85 82 79
1.8 81 79 75 1.8 82 81 76 1.8 83 81 76 1.8 85 82 79
2.0 82 80 75 2.0 83 81 76 2.0 84 81 77 2.0 86 82 80
2.5 83 81 77 2.5 84 82 79 2.5 85 82 79 2.5 86 83 80
3.04 84 82 79 3.04 85 82 80 3.04 86 83 80 3.04 87 83 80
3.54 85 82 80 3.54 86 83 80 3.54 86 83 80 3.54 87 84 80
4.04 86 83 80 4.04 86 84 80 4.04 87 84 80 4.04 87 84 80
4.54 87 83 80 4.54 87 84 81 4.54 87 84 81 4.54 88 84 81
5.04 87 84 81 5.04 87 84 82 5.04 87 84 82 5.04 88 84 82
5.34 87 84 81 5.34 88 84 82 5.34 88 84 82 5.34 88 84 82

CRC = colorectal cancer; RR CRC = background risk for CRC

1

Given a willingness-to-pay threshold of $100,000 per QALY gained.

2

Detailed information on the assessment of comorbidity status is given in Figure 2, footnote 4.

3

Detailed information on the assessment of background risk for CRC is given in Figure 2, footnote 5.

4

Background risk for CRC only possible in case of a family history of CRC.

5

In these cohorts screening was not cost-effective at age 66 years. We did not perform analyses for individuals aged 65 years or younger.