Figure 4.

Population growth rates for the period 1980–2000 and the predicted spatial distribution of changes by 2080–2100. The survival of embryos is assumed to be either temperature-dependent or -independent. Body temperatures of lizards were calculated from either monthly averages of climate or hourly projections of climate. If embryonic survival depends on temperature, changes in population growth rates are shown at three scenarios of nesting behaviour: mothers either fail to alter the depth and shade of their nests, or construct nests under more shade or in deeper soil. These results were based on simulations in which the depth of nests was 6 cm and the level of shade was 50%. See the electronic supplementary material, figures S61–S72 for results of simulations under other depths and shade conditions. (Online version in colour.)