Figure 2.

The predicted probability of divorce for a newly formed great tit pair (breeding in season t) between breeding seasons t and t + 1 according to association strength between pair members and association–strength rank of male's partner, among all his opposite sex associates (rank 1 is the female bird with whom the male has the strongest association), in the winter prior to breeding season t for (a) inexperienced males; (b) experienced males. The probability is plotted for all years (2007–2013) combined. The estimates were obtained by the best binomial glm, controlling for the effect of the clutch size and winter (winters 2007–2009, winter 2011 and winter 2012).