Table 3.

Best-fitted vaccine efficacy profiles for the 6–12 weeks and 5–17 months cohorts when fitting to 3-month incidence data from the RTS,S Phase III trial

Cohort	Initial efficacy against infection at completion of 3rd dose (%)	Half-life of efficacy against infection (months)	Decay (Weibull decay shape parameter)	Boosting efficacy against infection at 4th dose (%)
Exponential decay
6–12 weeks	57.5 (95 % CI 40.1–71.2)	7.4 (95 % CI 6.1–10.4)	Exponential	48.5 (95 % CI 32.8–64.3)
5–17 months	72.5 (95 % CI 57.7–83.7)	7.9 (95 % CI 6.1–11.0)	Exponential	39.2 (95 % CI 30.6–53.4)
Weibull decay
6–12 weeks	64.9 (95 % CI 44.0–83.2)	7.2 (95 % CI 6.0–9.8)	0.84 (95 % CI 0.64–0.99)	55.2 (95 % CI 34.5–73.1)
5–17 months	91.1 (95 % CI 74.5–99.7)	7.32 (95 % CI 6.0–10.0)	0.69 (95 % CI 0.54–0.9)	49 (95 % CI 32–68.6)

Posterior distributions described by mean and 95 % credible interval