Table 3. Points assigned to predict 3 year incidence of type 2 diabetes.
| Non-invasive model | Model including FPG | Model including HbA1c | Model including FPG and HbA1c | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Risk factors | β | OR (95% CI) | P | β | OR (95% CI) | P | β | OR (95% CI) | P | β | OR (95% CI) | P |
| Sex | ||||||||||||
| Women | 1.00 (reference) | 0 | 1.00 (reference) | 0 | 1.00 (reference) | 0 | 1.00 (reference) | 0 | ||||
| Men | 0.61 | 1.85 (1.43–2.38) | 2 | -0.10 | 0.91 (0.69–1.19) | 0 | 0.70 | 2.01 (1.54–2.62) | 2 | 0.12 | 1.13 (0.85–1.50) | 1 |
| Age (year) | ||||||||||||
| 30-<40 | 1.00 (reference) | 0 | 1.00 (reference) | 0 | 1.00 (reference) | 0 | 1.00 (reference) | 0 | ||||
| 40-<50 | 0.69 | 1.99 (1.62–2.44) | 2 | 0.47 | 1.59 (1.28–1.98) | 2 | 0.29 | 1.34 (1.08–1.66) | 2 | 0.24 | 1.28 (1.01–1.61) | 2 |
| 50-<60 | 1.28 | 3.61 (2.94–4.43) | 4 | 0.69 | 2.00 (1.61–2.49) | 2 | 0.49 | 1.63 (1.31–2.03) | 2 | 0.29 | 1.33 (1.06–1.68) | 2 |
| ≥60 | 1.65 | 5.23 (3.81–7.17) | 4 | 1.11 | 3.03 (2.15–4.27) | 3 | 0.49 | 1.64 (1.16–2.31) | 2 | 0.48 | 1.61 (1.12–2.32) | 2 |
| BMI (kg/m 2 ) | ||||||||||||
| <21 | 1.00 (reference) | 0 | 1.00 (reference) | 0 | 1.00 (reference) | 0 | 1.00 (reference) | 0 | ||||
| 21-<23 | 0.30 | 1.36 (1.06–1.73) | 2 | 0.08 | 1.09 (0.84–1.40) | 1 | 0.12 | 1.13 (0.88–1.46) | 1 | -0.01 | 0.99 (0.76–1.29) | 0 |
| 23-<25 | 0.68 | 1.97 (1.56–2.49) | 2 | 0.36 | 1.44 (1.12–1.84) | 2 | 0.34 | 1.40 (1.10–1.79) | 2 | 0.14 | 1.15 (0.89–1.50) | 1 |
| 25-<27 | 1.03 | 2.81 (2.19–3.62) | 3 | 0.61 | 1.85 (1.41–2.42) | 2 | 0.55 | 1.73 (1.32–2.26) | 2 | 0.32 | 1.37 (1.03–1.83) | 2 |
| 27-<29 | 1.10 | 2.99 (2.19–4.09) | 3 | 0.67 | 1.96 (1.41–2.73) | 2 | 0.47 | 1.60 (1.15–2.24) | 2 | 0.34 | 1.41 (0.99–2.00) | 2 |
| ≥29 | 1.68 | 5.39 (3.90–7.45) | 4 | 1.16 | 3.20 (2.26–4.55) | 3 | 0.73 | 2.08 (1.46–2.95) | 2 | 0.58 | 1.79 (1.23–2.60) | 2 |
| Abdominal obesity a | ||||||||||||
| No | 1.00 (reference) | 0 | 1.00 (reference) | 0 | 1.00 (reference) | 0 | 1.00 (reference) | 0 | ||||
| Yes | 0.22 | 1.24 (1.03–1.50) | 2 | 0.16 | 1.18 (0.97–1.43) | 1 | 0.09 | 1.10 (0.90–1.34) | 1 | 0.08 | 1.09 (0.88–1.34) | 1 |
| Smoking status | ||||||||||||
| Non smoker | 1.00 (reference) | 0 | 1.00 (reference) | 0 | 1.00 (reference) | 0 | 1.00 (reference) | 0 | ||||
| Current smoker | 0.26 | 1.30 (1.15–1.47) | 2 | 0.43 | 1.54 (1.34–1.77) | 2 | 0.07 | 1.07 (0.93–1.23) | 1 | 0.24 | 1.27 (1.10–1.47) | 2 |
| Hypertension | ||||||||||||
| No | 1.00 (reference) | 0 | 1.00 (reference) | 0 | 1.00 (reference) | 0 | 1.00 (reference) | 0 | ||||
| Yes | 0.43 | 1.54 (1.34–1.77) | 2 | 0.19 | 1.21 (1.04–1.41) | 1 | 0.50 | 1.64 (1.41–1.91) | 2 | 0.30 | 1.34 (1.14–1.58) | 2 |
| FPG (mg/dl) | ||||||||||||
| <100 | 1.00 (reference) | 0 | 1.00 (reference) | 0 | ||||||||
| 100-<110 | 1.54 | 4.66 (3.82–5.69) | 4 | 1.08 | 2.96 (2.41–3.63) | 3 | ||||||
| ≥110 | 3.49 | 32.85 (27.08–39.84) | 5 | 2.62 | 13.70 (11.15–16.82) | 5 | ||||||
| HbA1c (NGSP) (%) | ||||||||||||
| <5.6 | 1.00 (reference) | 0 | 1.00 (reference) | 0 | ||||||||
| 5.6-<6.0 | 1.52 | 4.55 (3.58–5.79) | 4 | 1.07 | 2.90 (2.27–3.71) | 3 | ||||||
| ≥6.0 | 3.81 | 45.05 (35.43–57.28) | 5 | 2.85 | 17.33 (13.48–22.27) | 5 | ||||||
Abbreviations: CI, confidence interval; FPG, fasting plasma glucose; NGSP, National Glycohemoglobin Standardization Program; OR, odds ratio; P, point.
aAbdominal obesity was defined as waist circumference of 90 cm or more in men and 80 cm or more in women.