Table 4. Predictive performance of the developed diabetes risk scores.
| Derivation cohort | Validation cohort | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Risk scores | Sens | Spec | PPV | NPV | Ydn | LR+ | LR- | Sens | Spec | PPV | NPV | Ydn | LR+ | LR- |
| Non-invasive model | ||||||||||||||
| ≥5 | 95.3 | 23.7 | 5.6 | 99.1 | 19.0 | 1.25 | 0.20 | 97.0 | 23.6 | 5.7 | 99.4 | 20.6 | 1.27 | 0.13 |
| ≥6 | 95.0 | 25.2 | 5.6 | 98.3 | 20.2 | 1.27 | 0.20 | 96.6 | 25.1 | 5.7 | 98.7 | 21.8 | 1.29 | 0.13 |
| ≥7 | 83.3 | 46.7 | 6.9 | 98.2 | 30.1 | 1.56 | 0.36 | 87.3 | 47.0 | 7.2 | 98.5 | 34.3 | 1.65 | 0.27 |
| ≥8 | 79.5 | 51.2 | 7.1 | 97.5 | 30.7 | 1.63 | 0.40 | 83.2 | 51.4 | 7.5 | 97.5 | 34.6 | 1.71 | 0.33 |
| ≥9 | 61.0 | 70.8 | 9.0 | 97.1 | 31.8 | 2.09 | 0.55 | 61.2 | 70.8 | 9.0 | 97.2 | 32.0 | 2.09 | 0.55 |
| ≥10 | 51.3 | 77.5 | 9.7 | 96.5 | 28.7 | 2.27 | 0.63 | 53.3 | 77.4 | 10.0 | 96.6 | 30.7 | 2.36 | 0.60 |
| ≥11 | 33.0 | 87.7 | 11.3 | 96.2 | 20.9 | 2.70 | 0.76 | 34.7 | 87.6 | 11.7 | 96.2 | 22.3 | 2.80 | 0.75 |
| Model including FPG | ||||||||||||||
| ≥5 | 94.0 | 46.9 | 7.7 | 99.3 | 40.9 | 1.77 | 0.13 | 95.2 | 46.6 | 7.8 | 99.2 | 41.8 | 1.78 | 0.10 |
| ≥6 | 91.4 | 58.5 | 9.4 | 99.2 | 50.0 | 2.20 | 0.15 | 90.4 | 57.8 | 9.2 | 99.0 | 48.2 | 2.14 | 0.17 |
| ≥7 | 87.6 | 68.4 | 11.5 | 98.8 | 56.0 | 2.77 | 0.18 | 85.1 | 67.5 | 11.1 | 98.7 | 52.6 | 2.62 | 0.22 |
| ≥8 | 79.8 | 75.5 | 13.3 | 98.2 | 55.3 | 3.26 | 0.27 | 79.5 | 75.1 | 13.1 | 98.1 | 54.5 | 3.19 | 0.27 |
| ≥9 | 67.9 | 82.9 | 15.8 | 97.5 | 50.9 | 3.98 | 0.39 | 66.6 | 82.7 | 15.4 | 97.4 | 49.2 | 3.84 | 0.40 |
| ≥10 | 51.8 | 90.0 | 19.6 | 96.7 | 41.8 | 5.19 | 0.54 | 50.3 | 89.7 | 18.7 | 96.6 | 39.9 | 4.86 | 0.55 |
| ≥11 | 31.8 | 95.3 | 24.3 | 96.1 | 27.2 | 6.83 | 0.72 | 30.3 | 95.2 | 22.9 | 96.1 | 25.4 | 6.24 | 0.73 |
| Model including HbA1c | ||||||||||||||
| ≥5 | 98.2 | 21.3 | 5.5 | 99.5 | 19.5 | 1.25 | 0.08 | 98.4 | 21.3 | 5.6 | 99.4 | 19.7 | 1.25 | 0.07 |
| ≥6 | 96.5 | 32.6 | 6.3 | 99.5 | 29.1 | 1.43 | 0.11 | 96.1 | 32.3 | 6.3 | 99.4 | 28.4 | 1.42 | 0.12 |
| ≥7 | 94.9 | 44.0 | 7.4 | 99.4 | 39.0 | 1.70 | 0.12 | 94.0 | 43.8 | 7.4 | 99.2 | 37.8 | 1.67 | 0.14 |
| ≥8 | 92.6 | 53.5 | 8.6 | 99.1 | 46.1 | 1.99 | 0.14 | 90.4 | 53.1 | 8.4 | 99.1 | 43.6 | 1.93 | 0.18 |
| ≥9 | 88.4 | 61.7 | 9.8 | 98.8 | 50.2 | 2.31 | 0.19 | 88.0 | 61.4 | 9.8 | 98.6 | 49.3 | 2.27 | 0.20 |
| ≥10 | 80.7 | 72.4 | 12.1 | 98.0 | 53.0 | 2.92 | 0.27 | 78.6 | 71.5 | 11.6 | 98.0 | 50.0 | 2.75 | 0.30 |
| ≥11 | 65.2 | 82.0 | 14.6 | 97.3 | 47.3 | 3.63 | 0.42 | 64.1 | 81.5 | 14.1 | 97.3 | 45.6 | 3.47 | 0.44 |
| ≥12 | 45.9 | 90.1 | 17.9 | 96.6 | 36.0 | 4.63 | 0.60 | 46.9 | 90.3 | 18.6 | 96.5 | 37.2 | 4.81 | 0.59 |
| Model including FPG and HbA1c | ||||||||||||||
| ≥5 | 98.3 | 29.2 | 6.1 | 99.7 | 27.5 | 1.39 | 0.06 | 98.2 | 29.2 | 6.2 | 99.6 | 27.4 | 1.39 | 0.06 |
| ≥6 | 97.4 | 39.5 | 7.1 | 99.6 | 37.0 | 1.61 | 0.07 | 96.3 | 39.3 | 7.0 | 99.6 | 35.6 | 1.59 | 0.09 |
| ≥7 | 96.1 | 51.1 | 8.5 | 99.5 | 47.2 | 1.96 | 0.08 | 95.2 | 50.3 | 8.3 | 99.5 | 45.5 | 1.91 | 0.10 |
| ≥8 | 94.3 | 57.9 | 9.5 | 99.4 | 52.2 | 2.24 | 0.10 | 94.2 | 57.3 | 9.5 | 99.4 | 51.5 | 2.21 | 0.10 |
| ≥9 | 91.4 | 67.9 | 11.8 | 99.3 | 59.3 | 2.85 | 0.13 | 91.9 | 67.2 | 11.7 | 99.2 | 59.1 | 2.80 | 0.12 |
| ≥10 | 88.7 | 75.1 | 14.4 | 99.1 | 63.8 | 3.57 | 0.15 | 87.6 | 74.9 | 14.2 | 99.0 | 62.5 | 3.50 | 0.17 |
| ≥11 | 84.2 | 80.3 | 16.7 | 98.7 | 64.5 | 4.27 | 0.20 | 82.3 | 80.0 | 16.4 | 98.5 | 62.3 | 4.12 | 0.22 |
| ≥12 | 75.6 | 86.7 | 21.2 | 98.4 | 62.3 | 5.70 | 0.28 | 72.2 | 86.5 | 20.2 | 98.2 | 58.7 | 5.33 | 0.32 |
| ≥13 | 68.5 | 90.5 | 25.4 | 97.9 | 59.0 | 7.24 | 0.35 | 64.8 | 90.5 | 24.4 | 97.6 | 55.3 | 6.80 | 0.39 |
Abbreviations: FPG, fasting plasma glucose; LR, Likelihood ratio; NPV, Negative predictive value; PPV, positive predictive value; Sens, sensitivity; Spec, specificity; Ydn, Youden index.