Figure 2.

Scenario 2: heterogeneity of treatment effect in negative trials. This figure shows the results of the 4,504 simulated trials from scenario 2 (see main text) that failed to show a statistically significant benefit of the therapy in patients with acute respiratory failure requiring mechanical ventilation. Nonetheless, the highest deciles of risk showed consistent benefit (lower mortality in treated arm than in the control arm). The upper panel shows the results in each arm, stratified by decile of risk; the lower panel shows the net effect: the rate of mortality in the control arm minus the rate in the treated arm.