Table 2. Epidemic impact of prioritizing different age-group bands and brackets through the voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) program.
| Age group | #VMMC/HIA (2010–25) | #VMMCs (2010–17) (millions) | Additional VMMCs (2018–25) (millions) | HIA (millions) (2010–25) | Cost (USD)/HIA (2010–25) | Total cost (billion) (2010–25) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15–49 | 11 | 2.52 | 1.1 | 0.33 | 1,010 | 0.33 |
| 13–29 | 11 | 2.17 (86%) | 1.3 | 0.31 (96%) | 934 (92%) | 0.29 (89%) |
| 13–29* | 12 | 2.32 (92%) | 1.3 | 0.29 (88%) | 1,035 (102%) | 0.30 (90%) |
| 10–14 | 19 | 1.32 (52%) | 1.3 | 0.14 (41%) | 1,483 (147%) | 0.20 (61%) |
| 15–19 | 11 | 1.17 (46%) | 1.2 | 0.20 (63%) | 917.32 (91%) | 0.19 (57%) |
| 20–24 | 10 | 0.99 (39%) | 1.0 | 0.21 (64%) | 811 (80%) | 0.17 (51%) |
| 25–29 | 12 | 0.80 (32%) | 0.9 | 0.14 (43%) | 1,059 (105%) | 0.15 (45%) |
| 30–34 | 15 | 0.63 (25%) | 0.7 | 0.09 (28%) | 1,377 (136%) | 0.12 (38%) |
| 35–39 | 19 | 0.49 (20%) | 0.6 | 0.06 (17%) | 1,857 (184%) | 0.10 (31%) |
| 40–44 | 28 | 0.39 (15%) | 0.5 | 0.03 (10%) | 2,769 (247%) | 0.09 (26%) |
| 45–49 | 53 | 0.28 (11%) | 0.4 | 0.01 (4%) | 5,518 (546%) | 0.07 (21%) |
| 15–24 | 11 | 1.57 (62%) | 1.3 | 0.27 (83%) | 873 (86%) | 0.23 (70%) |
| 15–29 | 11 | 1.86 (74%) | 1.3 | 0.30 (91%) | 888 (88%) | 0.26 (78%) |
| 15–34 | 11 | 2.08 (83%) | 1.2 | 0.31 (96%) | 915 (91%) | 0.39 (87%) |
| 10–24 | 13 | 2.19 (87%) | 1.5 | 0.28 (86%) | 1,061 (105%) | 0.29 (88%) |
| 10–29 | 13 | 2.49 (99%) | 1.5 | 0.31 (96%) | 1,039 (103%) | 0.32 (97%) |
| 10–34 | 12 | 2.72 (108%) | 1.4 | 0.33 (102%) | 1,044 (103%) | 0.35 (105%) |
| 10–49 | 13 | 3.14 (125%) | 1.3 | 0.35 (107%) | 1,118 (111%) | 0.44 (131%) |
The number of VMMCs needed to avert one HIV infection (2010–2025) (effectiveness), the total number of VMMCs needed to reach 80% coverage by 2017, the additional number of VMMCs needed during the sustainability phase (2018–2025), the total number of HIV infections averted (2010–2025) (magnitude of impact), the cost needed to avert one HIV infection (2010–2025) (cost-effectiveness), and the total program cost (2010–2025) (program cost). Targeting the 15–49 year old male population is used as the baseline VMMC intervention scenario for comparison purposes. The numbers in parentheses indicate the fractions achieved relative to the baseline.
* 29% of all VMMCs are among males 13–14 year old and 71% are among males 15–29 year old.
VMMC: Voluntary medical male circumcision, HIA: HIV infection(s) averted.