Table 1. Model input: CRC incidence and mortality rates in the absence of screening and hazard rate ratios for the three screening scenarios when compared with no screening.

Cycle	CRC incidence				CRC mortality
Year since age 55	No screening (Hazard rate)a	gFOBT (HRR)	FSb (HRR)	FSb plus FOBT (HRR)	No sceening (Hazard rate, 2013)c	gFOBT (HRR)	FSb (HRR)	FSb plus FOBT (HRR)
1	0.0006	1	2.05	2.05	0.0001	1	0.78	0.78
2	0.0007	1	0.77	0.77	0.0001	1	0.78	0.78
3	0.0007	1	0.77	0.77	0.0002	1	0.78	0.78
4	0.0008	1	0.47	0.47	0.0002	1	0.78	0.78
5	0.0009	1	0.82	0.82	0.0002	1	0.78	0.78
6	0.0010	1.64	0.65	0.96	0.0002	0.87	0.78	0.70
7	0.0010	0.77	0.77	0.63	0.0002	0.87	0.78	0.70
8	0.0010	1.13	0.65	0.72	0.0003	0.87	0.78	0.70
9	0.0012	0.86	0.77	0.68	0.0003	0.87	0.78	0.70
10	0.0013	1.08	1.00	1.06	0.0003	0.87	0.78	0.70
11	0.0014	0.69	0.53	0.41	0.0004	0.87	0.78	0.70
12	0.0015	1.11	0.65	0.70	0.0004	0.87	0.78	0.70
13	0.0017	0.71	0.75d	0.58	0.0004	0.87	0.78	0.70
14	0.0018	0.94	0.75d	0.71	0.0005	0.87	0.78	0.70
15	0.0020	1.00	0.75d	0.75	0.0005	0.87	0.78	0.70
16	0.0021	1.06	0.75d	0.78	0.0005	0.87	0.78	0.70
17	0.0023	1.06	0.75d	0.78	0.0006	0.87	0.78	0.70

Abbreviations: CRC=colorectal cancer; FS=flexible sigmoidoscopy; gFOBT=guaiac faecal occult blood testing; HRR=hazard rate ratio.

^aCRC incidence is assumed to be constant in the years 2013–2030.

^bPresented for FS uptake 50%.

^cAdjusted for follow-up time, presented for cohort 2013. For cohort years 2014–2030, an annual 2% decrease in CRC mortality is assumed.

^dExtrapolations from follow-up years 8–12.