Table 2. Model parameters: base-case and sensitivity analyses.
| Model parameter | Base-case analysis | Sensitivity analysis | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trend in underlying CRC incidence rates | Constant | A | Annual decrease of 0.5% |
| B | Annual increase of 0.5% | |||
| Trend in underlying CRC mortality rates | Annual decrease of 2% | A | Annual decrease of 3% | |
| B | Constant | |||
| 2 | Invitation rates FS | 3% in 2013, 10% in 2014, 20% in 2015, 50% in 2016, 70% in 2017 and 100% in 2018–2030 | 3% in 2013, 6% in 2014, 12% in 2015, 20% in 2016, 40% in 2017, 60% in 2018, 75% in 2019 and 100% in 2020–2030 | |
| 3 | Uptake FS | 50% | A | 38% |
| B | 71% | |||
| 4 | HRR CRC incidence and mortality | Point estimate HRRs | A | HRR gFOBT -1 s.d. |
| B | HRR gFOBT +1 s.d. | |||
| C | HRR FS -1 s.d. | |||
| D | HRR FS +1 s.d. | |||
| 5 | Effect of gFOBT following FS | 75% of the effect of gFOBT alone | 70% of the effect of gFOBT alone |
Abbreviations: CRC=colorectal cancer; FS=flexible sigmoidoscopy; gFOBT=guaiac faecal occult blood testing; HRR=hazard rate ratio; s.d.=standard deviation.