Table 5. Sensitivity analyses: cumulative number of CRC cases and deaths prevented by adding FS to the England NHS Bowel Cancer Screening Programme.

	CRC cases				CRC deaths
	2025		2030		2025		2030
	N	%	N	%	N	%	N	%
Base-case:
	−2152		−9627		−808		−2207
Alternatives:
1. Trend in underlying CRC incidence and mortality rates
A. Incidence −0.5% py, mortality −3% py	−2044	−5%	−9002	−6%	−759	−6%	−2137	−3%
B. Incidence +1.0% py, mortality contant	−2262	+5%	−10 294	+7%	−1133	+40%	−3328	+51%
2. Alternative invitation rates FS	−1029	−52%	−7204	−25%	−572	−29%	−1725	−22%
3. Alternative uptake rates FS
A. FS uptake 38%	−1662	−23%	−7379	−23%	−619	−23%	−1691	−23%
B. FS uptake 71%	−3016	+40%	−13 689	+42%	−1155	+43%	−3154	+43%
4. HRR mortality
A. Lower HRR gFOBT	−2070	−4%	−9217	−4%	−796	−1%	−2139	−3%
B. Upper HRR gFOBT	−2231	+4%	−10 037	+4%	−821	+2%	−2276	+3%
C. Lower HRR FS	−2562	+19%	−10 742	+12%	−945	+17%	−2594	+18%
D. Upper HRR FS	−1740	−19%	−8512	−12%	−673	−17%	−1824	−17%
5. Alternative impact of gFOBT following FS	−2180	+1%	−9660	+0%	−802	−1%	−2172	−2%

Abbreviations: CRC=colorectal cancer; FS=flexible sigmoidoscopy; gFOBT=guaiac faecal occult blood testing; HRR=hazard rate ratio; py=per year.