Table 1.
Number of enrolled participants required to achieve the targeted effective number of person years of follow-up
| Time point | ||
|---|---|---|
| T1 and T2 | T3 and T4 | |
| Cross sectional survey (Baseline) (age range 15–49 years) | ||
| Number at baseline | 10,000 | 10,000 |
| HIV Prevalence | 20 % | 20 % |
| Number expected to be HIV negative | 8000 | 8000 |
| Longitudinal follow-up cohort (age range 15–35 years) | ||
| Design effect | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Number of individuals in the HIV negative cohort | 6400 | 6400 |
| Assumed HIV Incidence rate | 3 % | 3 % reduced by 30 % |
| Loss to Follow-up adjustment | 15 % | 15 % |
| Number expected to be retained in cohort | 5440 | 5440 |
| Number of HIV endpoints assumed | 163 | 114 |
| Total number of endpoints assumed across both cohorts | 277 | |
| Probability of Correct Inference | 84 % | 84 % |
T1 = Cross sectional Survey 1
T2 = Embedded cohort 1
T3 = Cross sectional Survey 2
T4 = Embedded cohort 2