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. 2015 Oct 5;112(46):14384–14389. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1511804112

Table 1.

Consequences of managing variance within a safe operating space

Effect of controlling variance Explanation Consequence
Frequency shift Reduced variance at high frequencies guarantees an increase at low frequencies Long-term cycles may cross thresholds
Change the safe operating space Reduced short-term variance changes boundaries of the safe operating space Critical thresholds may be crossed
Missed information Variability reveals ecosystem behavior under different conditions Lost opportunity to learn
Lost resilience indicators Higher variance near critical thresholds indicates loss of resilience Inability to detect change in resilience
Lock-in of adaptive systems Without disturbance, adaptive systems become unresponsive to long-term change Ability to adapt to gradual long-term change is impaired
Impaired hardiness to shocks Moderate stress promotes capacity to respond to stress Increased vulnerability to novel disturbance