Table 1.

Consequences of managing variance within a safe operating space

Effect of controlling variance	Explanation	Consequence
Frequency shift	Reduced variance at high frequencies guarantees an increase at low frequencies	Long-term cycles may cross thresholds
Change the safe operating space	Reduced short-term variance changes boundaries of the safe operating space	Critical thresholds may be crossed
Missed information	Variability reveals ecosystem behavior under different conditions	Lost opportunity to learn
Lost resilience indicators	Higher variance near critical thresholds indicates loss of resilience	Inability to detect change in resilience
Lock-in of adaptive systems	Without disturbance, adaptive systems become unresponsive to long-term change	Ability to adapt to gradual long-term change is impaired
Impaired hardiness to shocks	Moderate stress promotes capacity to respond to stress	Increased vulnerability to novel disturbance