Fig. 1.

Seasonal air temperatures from Arctic Station (Disko Island, western Greenland) combined from historical climate data (1873–1992), recent observations (1991–2011) (shaded in grey) and regional climate model simulations (2012–2080). The historical data are based on data from Ilulissat and the future predictions (shaded in blue) are derived from the Danish Meteorological Institute's HIRHAM4 model downscaled for use in the Disko region. The scenario presented is based on a 2.4 °C warming over a 70-year period. Temperatures are shown for the winter (blue), spring (yellow), summer (green) and autumn (red), and the five distinct temperature trend periods that have been identified from 1873 to 1990 are separated with vertical dotted lines.