Appendix Exhibit 2.

Simulated Medicaid Eligibility and Coverage in 2006 (in Millions) for Two Baseline Scenarios and Four Policy Options, Assuming 85% Participation Rate and 35% Administrative Disruption

Scenario	Covered any time in 2006		Average monthly caseload in 2006		Covered all months in 2006		Transitioning into Medicaid in 2006		Transitioning from Medicaid in 2006*		Leaving and re- entering in 2006*
	Number	%	Number	%	Number	%	Number	%	Number	%	Number	%
Baseline Scenarios
(1) Perfect enforcement
Persons eligible	59.7	32.8	40	22
Persons covered	53.1	29.2	36.1	19.8	24.6	13.6	21.1	11.6	20.1	11	5.4	3
(2) Imperfect enforcement, with quarterly wage check and annual redetermination of eligibility
Persons covered	57.1	31.4	40.8	22.4	22.1	12.2	24	13.2	25.5	14	10.9	6
Policy Options
Annualized income
Persons covered	58.4	32.1	42.4	23.3	22.9	12.6	24.3	13.4	26.5	14.5	12.2	6.7
Change from baseline (2)	1.4	0.7	1.6	0.9	0.8	0.4	0.3	0.2	1	0.5	1.3	0.7
3-month Extension
Persons covered	57.4	31.6	42.1	23.1	23.4	12.9	24	13.2	24.7	13.6	11	6.1
Change from baseline (2)	0.3	0.2	1.3	0.7	1.3	0.7	−0.1	0	−0.8	−0.4	0.2	0.1
End-of Year Extension
Persons covered	57.1	31.4	46.8	25.7	38.5	21.1	15	8.2	5.4	3	1.8	1
Change from baseline (2)	0	0	6	3.3	16.4	8.9	−9	−5	−20.1	−11	−9.1	−5
12-month Continuous Eligibility
Persons covered	60.4	33.2	47.3	26	25.5	14	21.4	11.8	22.3	12.3	8.9	4.9
Change from baseline (2)	3.3	1.8	6.5	3.6	3.4	1.8	−2.7	−1.4	−3.2	−1.7	−2	−1.1

Source: Authors’ simulation model using 2004–2007 SIPP Panel. Notes: Denominator for all percentages is the weighted estimate of the U.S. population of adults under age 65 (181.877 million). Counts of people transitioning into Medicaid, transitioning from Medicaid, and re-entering are not mutually exclusive.

^*Includes people covered in December 2005 who disenrolled in January 2006.