Fig 2. Posterior distribution from a trajectory with strong oscillations.

Inferred posterior distributions and model parameters for the single trajectory shown in Fig 1C for (A) the K-fibre (de)polymerisation velocities v ₊ (blue) and v ₋ (red); (B) spring constant κ; (C) anti-poleward force gradient α; (D) noise parameter τ = s ⁻²; (E) natural length L; (F) probabilities of not switching state per time-point when sisters are coherent (blue) and incoherent (red). The informed Gaussian prior for L determined through nocodazole treatment (see S1 Fig) is shown in red in (E). Posterior distributions consist of over 5,000 samples (see section 1.2 of S1 Text for convergence protocols). (G) Trajectories for sisters of trajectory in Fig 1C with switching points marked by dashed lines. (H) Probability of switching per frame shown for each sister. (I) Posterior probabilities of sister state over the course of the trajectory. Incoherent state –/– does not occur during this particular trajectory.