Table 2.
Performance of risk models and breast density
| No cancer, median (IQR) | Cancer, median (IQR) | IQR-ORa (95 % CI) | IQR-ORb (95 % CI) | LRa-χ2 | LRb-Δχ2 | AUCa (95 % CI) | AUCb (95 % CI) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Primary: invasive + DCIS | ||||||||
| Number of women | 49,931 | 697 | ||||||
| Gail | 3.50 % (2.90–4.40 %) | 3.70 % (3.10–4.60 %) | 1.22 (1.12–1.33) | 1.21 (1.10–1.31) | 19.7 | 0.55 (0.52–0.57) | ||
| Density residual | −0.06 (−0.73–0.63) | 0.24 (−0.40–0.91) | 1.48 (1.34–1.63) | 1.47 (1.33–1.62) | 61.4 | 58.6 | 0.59 (0.57–0.61) | 0.59 (0.57–0.61) |
| Tyrer-Cuzick | 2.66 % (2.12–3.47 %) | 2.94 % (2.28–3.97 %) | 1.36 (1.25–1.48) | 1.34 (1.23–1.45) | 49.2 | 0.57 (0.55–0.59) | ||
| Density residual | −0.06 (−0.73–0.63) | 0.24 (−0.40–0.91) | 1.48 (1.34–1.63) | 1.45 (1.32–1.60) | 61.4 | 54.8 | 0.59 (0.57–0.61) | 0.61 (0.59–0.63) |
| Secondary: invasive | ||||||||
| Number of women | 50,061 | 567 | ||||||
| Gail | 3.50 % (2.90–4.40 %) | 3.70 % (3.00–4.55 %) | 1.19 (1.07–1.31) | 1.17 (1.06–1.29) | 11.3 | 0.54 (0.52–0.56) | ||
| Density residual | −0.06 (−0.73–0.63) | 0.24 (−0.40–0.85) | 1.47 (1.32–1.64) | 1.46 (1.31–1.63) | 48.5 | 46.6 | 0.59 (0.56–0.61) | 0.59 (0.57–0.61) |
| Tyrer-Cuzick | 2.66 % (2.12–3.47 %) | 2.93 % (2.29–3.88 %) | 1.33 (1.21–1.46) | 1.30 (1.18–1.43) | 33.6 | 33.6 | 0.57 (0.55–0.59) | |
| Density residual | −0.06 (−0.73–0.63) | 0.24 (−0.40–0.85) | 1.47 (1.32–1.64) | 1.46 (1.31–1.63) | 48.5 | 43.7 | 0.59 (0.56–0.61) | 0.61 (0.58–0.63) |
Gail 10-year risk, TC Tyrer-Cuzick 10-year risk, DR density residual, IQR interquartile range, OR odds ratio, CI confidence interval, LR likelihood ratio, AUC area under the receiver operating characteristic curve
aUnivariate
bMultivariate (risk model + density)