Table 3.

Model performance, by age group

		Calibration: O/E (95 % CI)		Discrimination: AUC (95 % CI)
Age group, yr	Cases/total (%)	Tyrer-Cuzick	Gail	Tyrer-Cuzick	Gail
47–49	170/13,662 (1.2 %)	51 % (16–85 %)	43 % (−4–88 %)	0.57 (0.52–0.61)	0.54 (0.50–0.59)
50–54	125/10,677 (1.2 %)	52 % (14–89 %)	44 % (−8–93 %)	0.55 (0.49–0.60)	0.54 (0.49–0.59)
55–59	42/4312 (1.0 %)	70 % (−2–138 %)	33 % (−75–135 %)	0.58 (0.49–0.67)	0.53 (0.45–0.62)
60–64	147/8244 (1.8 %)	79 % (42–114 %)	17 % (−33–64 %)	0.62 (0.58–0.66)	0.52 (0.48–0.57)
65–69	173/10,926 (1.6 %)	44 % (10–76 %)	17 % (−29–60 %)	0.54 (0.50–0.59)	0.51 (0.46–0.55)
70–73	40/2807 (1.4 %)	122 % (54–188 %)	99 % (19–172 %)	0.64 (0.55–0.73)	0.58 (0.48–0.68)

O/E observed to expected odds ratio, CI confidence interval, AUC area under the receiver operating characteristic curve