Table 14.

Fit: probability of initial receipt of DI at each age and cumulative over ages, actual and predicted

Age	Probability of DI over two years*		Cumulative from age 50**		Cumulative from age 53**
	predicted	actual	predicted	actual	predicted	actual
50	0.012	0.015	0.012	0.015
51	0.013	0.004	0.018	0.017
52	0.013	0.007	0.025	0.021
53	0.013	0.012	0.031	0.027	0.013	0.012
54	0.013	0.013	0.037	0.033	0.019	0.018
55	0.013	0.013	0.044	0.039	0.026	0.025
56	0.014	0.015	0.051	0.047	0.033	0.032
57	0.015	0.013	0.058	0.054	0.040	0.039
58	0.015	0.015	0.066	0.061	0.048	0.047
59	0.016	0.020	0.074	0.071	0.055	0.056
60	0.017	0.017	0.082	0.079	0.064	0.065
61	0.016	0.019	0.091	0.089	0.072	0.074
62	0.016	0.013	0.098	0.095	0.080	0.080

^*The probability shown is the probability that a person will begin to receive DI over the next two years.

^**Calculation of the cumulative assumes that the probability of DI receipt over a one year peiod is half that of the two-year probability