Table 1.

Cumulative probabilities of projected lion population decline by one-third (33%) and one-half (50%) in periods of 5, 10, 20, and 30 y and three LGs defined according to the IUCN

Population	Size	$p_{0.33}^5$	$p_{0.5}^5$	$p_{0.33}^{10}$	$p_{0.5}^{10}$	$p_{0.33}^{20}$	$p_{0.5}^{20}$	$p_{0.33}^{30}$	$p_{0.5}^{30}$	$p_{0.33}^{3LG}$	$p_{0.5}^{3LG}$
Western-Central
Yankari	11	0.87	0.76	0.91	0.88	0.93	0.92	0.94	0.93	0.93	0.92
Niokolo	16	0.72	0.33	0.85	0.76	0.89	0.86	0.9	0.89	0.89	0.87
Waza	17	0.68	0.35	0.82	0.72	0.87	0.84	0.88	0.86	0.87	0.84
Kainji	32	0.56	0.33	0.69	0.6	0.75	0.71	0.76	0.74	0.75	0.71
W	64	0.2	0.1	0.34	0.23	0.44	0.36	0.48	0.42	0.45	0.37
Benoue	200	0.17	0.08	0.3	0.2	0.39	0.32	0.42	0.37	0.39	0.33
Eastern
Taita	15	0.5	0.3	0.65	0.54	0.72	0.67	0.74	0.71	0.72	0.68
Samburu	26	0.15	0.07	0.25	0.17	0.32	0.27	0.35	0.31	0.33	0.28
Nairobi	30	0.06	0.01	0.19	0.08	0.34	0.23	0.4	0.31	0.35	0.24
Laikipia	60	0.1	0.01	0.37	0.15	0.59	0.43	0.66	0.56	0.6	0.45
Luangwa	94	0.21	0.1	0.36	0.24	0.45	0.38	0.49	0.44	0.46	0.39
Matambwe	112	0.03	0.01	0.12	0.05	0.26	0.14	0.36	0.23	0.28	0.15
Murchison	132	0.78	0.6	0.86	0.81	0.88	0.86	0.89	0.88	0.88	0.87
Queen Elizabeth	144	0.16	0.06	0.36	0.2	0.54	0.4	0.6	0.51	0.55	0.41
Tarangire	157	0.04	0.01	0.28	0.06	0.63	0.36	0.73	0.58	0.65	0.39
Maasai Mara	286	0.26	0.1	0.5	0.31	0.65	0.54	0.69	0.63	0.66	0.56
Southern
Kgalagadi*	115	0.03	0.01	0.11	0.04	0.21	0.13	0.28	0.19	0.22	0.13
Kwando Chobe	285	0.11	0.06	0.19	0.13	0.25	0.2	0.27	0.23	0.25	0.21
Makgadikgadi	327	0.1	0.05	0.16	0.12	0.21	0.17	0.23	0.2	0.21	0.18
Etosha*	457	0.05	0.01	0.14	0.07	0.26	0.16	0.33	0.23	0.26	0.17
Okavango	1107	0.2	0.09	0.38	0.24	0.55	0.42	0.59	0.52	0.55	0.44
Kruger*	1672	0.2	0.12	0.3	0.22	0.37	0.31	0.39	0.35	0.37	0.32

Population sizes show most recent estimates of lion numbers. Extinct populations or populations unlikely to decline are not shown.

^*Fenced population.