Table 3.
Risk factors | Unadjusted OR | Adj. OR (95 % CI) | p-value* | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Demographic | Age (by 10 years over 18 years) | 0.9 (0.8-1.0) | 0.8 (0.6-1.0) | <0.05 |
Gender (female) | 0.7 (0.5-1.0) | 0.4 (0.2-0.9) | <0.05 | |
Social | Household income < CHF 3′000 | 2.7 (1.7-4.3) | 4.3 (2.0-9.2) | <0.001 |
Distance from home to ED <5 km | 2.2 (1.4-3.4) | 4.4 (2.1-9.0) | <0.001 | |
Somatic | ED primary diagnosis (ref. = circulatory system) | 1.0 | 1.0 | |
Injuries | 0.4 (0.2-0.9) | 0.3 (0.1-0.9) | <0.05 | |
Other | 1.4 (0.7-2.4) | 0.9 (0.3-2.6) | ns | |
Comorbidity index | 1.1 (1.0-1.2) | 1.2 (1.1-1.4) | <0.01 | |
Chronic disease (yes) | 0.7 (0.5-1.1) | 0.3 (0.1-0.7) | <0.01 | |
Mental | Comorbidities (yes) | 3.2 (2.1-4.9) | 2.3 (1.2-4.7) | <0.05 |
Risk behavior | Tobacco consumption (≠ no use) | 2.6 (1.6-4.4) | 2.6 (1.1-5.9) | <0.05 |
Health care use | PCP and number of visits (ref. = PCP, no visits) | 1.0 | 1.0 | |
No PCP | 3.3 (1.4-8.0) | 8.4 (2.1-32.7) | <0.01 | |
PCP, 1 or more visits | 1.4 (0.7-2.9) | 1.0 (0.3-3.0) | ns | |
Hospital admissions (ref = 1 or 2) | 1.0 | 1.0 | ||
0 admissions | 0.6 (0.4-1.0) | 0.3 (0.1-0.5) | <0.001 | |
3 or more admissions | 15.3 (7.2-32.1) | 23.2 (9.1-59.2) | <0.001 | |
Use of other EDs (yes) | 1.6 (1.0-2.6) | 2.7 (1.2-6.1) | <0.05 |
* ns non-significant
Sensitivity = 85.8 %, specificity = 81.3 %, and area under curve (AUC) = 0.921
CHF Swiss Francs (in January 2009, 1 Swiss Franc = USD 0.9), ED emergency department, PCP primary care physician