Table 4.
Probabilistic means of clinical model outputs for all scenarios, together with absolute and percentage differences between the aTIV ≥ 65 QIV < 65 and QIV groups
| Probabilistic means (95% CrI) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low intensity | Average intensity | ||||
| Low match | Average match | High match | Low match | Average match | |
| No. of influenza cases | |||||
| aTIV ≥ 65 QIV < 65 | 6,027,660 (78,909; 36,311,558) | 5,777,353 (75,423; 38,843,395) | 5,261,063 (75,878; 33,685,356) | 21,578,258 (123,112; 59,447,194) | 19,316,966 (126,949; 55,496,404) |
| QIV | 6,038,826 (78,925; 36,766,189) | 6,157,580 (76,309; 39,373,704) | 5,623,605 (76,992; 36,418,579) | 21,741,326 (122,355; 58,978,203) | 19,986,583 (127,646; 57,253,746) |
| TIV | 9,223,607 (84,893; 45,308,781) | 6,646,200 (76,373; 40,819,092) | 5,567,761 (78,157; 35,703,665) | 28,003,833 (147,513; 65,918,137) | 21,369,092 (129,967; 58,358,976) |
| Differencea | −11,166 (−15; −454,631) | −380,227 (−886; −530,310) | −362,542 (−1114; −2,733,223) | −163,069 (757; 468,991) | −669,617 (−697; −1,757,342) |
| % difference | −0.2% (0%; −1.2%) | −6.2% (−1.2%; −1.3%) | −6.4% (−1.4%; −7.5%) | −0.8% (0.6%; 0.8%) | −3.4% (−0.5%; −3.1%) |
| No. of hospitalized cases | |||||
| aTIV ≥ 65 QIV < 65 | 74,540 (732; 478,659) | 68,658 (731; 488,150) | 61,649 (717; 422,060) | 270,480 (1400; 887,920) | 234,462 (1386; 783,668) |
| QIV | 75,905 (737; 504,229) | 76,027 (753; 529,411) | 70,303 (729; 477,838) | 275,925 (1417; 892,722) | 254,636 (1456; 861,123) |
| TIV | 119,250 (838; 638,887) | 83,191 (761; 553,680) | 69,182 (737; 474,702) | 364,768 (1746; 1,065,454) | 272,990 (1512; 870,456) |
| Differencea | −1365 (−5; −25,570) | −7369 (−22; −41,261) | −8654 (−12; −55,778) | −5445 (−17; −4802) | −20,174 (−70; −77,455) |
| % difference | −1.8% (−0.6%; −5.1%) | −9.7% (−2.9%; −7.8%) | −12.3% (−1.7%; −11.7%) | −2.0% (−1.2%; −0.5%) | −7.9% (−4.8%; 9.0%) |
| No. of deaths | |||||
| aTIV ≥ 65 QIV < 65 | 11,111 (128; 69,130) | 9972 (123; 68,219) | 8612 (117; 58,637) | 41,558 (207; 125,706) | 34,556 (218; 108,141 |
| QIV | 11,532 (134; 70,644) | 11,661 (129; 79,266) | 10,638 (123; 70,694) | 43,098 (210; 127,822) | 39,650 (232; 125,079) |
| TIV | 18,554 (145; 93,987) | 12,898 (129; 81,952) | 10,403 (122; 71,827) | 58,292 (258; 153,658) | 42,631 (238; 125,801) |
| Differencea | −421 (−5; −1515) | −1689 (−6; −11,047) | −2026 (−5; −12,057) | −1540 (−3; −2116) | −5094 (−14; −16,939) |
| % difference | −3.7% (−4.0%; −2.1%) | −14.5% (−4.7%; −13.9%) | −19.0% (−4.3%; −17.1%) | −3.6% (−1.3%; −1.7%) | −12.8% (−6.1%; −13.5%) |
| Probabilistic means (95% CrI) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average intensity | High intensity | |||
| High match | Low match | Average match | High match | |
| No. of influenza cases | ||||
| aTIV ≥ 65 QIV < 65 | 21,745,069 (135,227; 57,835,457) | 38,432,664 (456,246; 64,711,422) | 38,509,481 (342,987; 68,646,356) | 37,884,145 (485,622; 66,618,131) |
| QIV | 22,616,695 (136,917; 59,223,921) | 38,792,998 (458,714; 65,017,135) | 39,367,544 (329,147; 70,314,941) | 39,213,345 (591,599; 68,087,578) |
| TIV | 22,528,976 (137,585; 57,974,422) | 45,945,792 (1,428,394; 71,443,604) | 41,066,246 (397,398; 71,657,334) | 39,161,286 (457,098; 67,290,103) |
| Differencea | −871,626 (−1,60; −1,388,463) | −360,335 (−2468; −305,713) | −858,063 (13,839; −1,668,585) | −1,329,200 (−105,978; −1,469,448) |
| % difference | −3.9% (−1.2%; −2.3%) | −0.9% (−0.5%; −0.5%) | −2.2% (4.2%; −2.4%) | −3.4% (−17.9%; −2.2%) |
| No. of hospitalized cases | ||||
| aTIV ≥ 65 QIV < 65 | 265,663 (1394; 843,838) | 484,446 (6399; 1,016,720) | 467,724 (3770; 1,067,724) | 457,235 (5820; 1,030,868) |
| QIV | 291,576 (1496; 925,050) | 496,117 (6064; 1,044,831) | 500,958 (4026; 1,146,636) | 500,909 (6419; 1,100,235) |
| TIV | 290,282 (1467; 910,043) | 601,994 (17,940; 1,177,357) | 526,056 (4632; 1,197,190) | 499,814 (5722; 1,122,835) |
| Differencea | −25,914 (−102; −81,212) | −11,671 (335; −28,111) | −33,234 (−256; −78,912) | −43,674 (−599; −69,367) |
| % difference | −8.9% (−6.8%; −8.8%) | −2.4% (5.5%; −2.7%) | −6.6% (−6.4%; −6.9%) | −8.7% (−9.3%; −6.3%) |
| No. of deaths | ||||
| aTIV ≥ 65 QIV < 65 | 39,103 (195; 118,692) | 75,847 (834; 142,897) | 70,199 (512; 144,230) | 67,877 (821; 139,586) |
| QIV | 45,781 (222; 136,438) | 78,792 (854; 148,743) | 79,315 (603; 157,884) | 79,197 (949; 159,363) |
| TIV | 45,515 (223; 134,019) | 97,605 (2707; 172,222) | 83,680 (641; 168,366) | 78,954 (856; 161,318) |
| Differencea | −6678 (−27; −17,747) | −2945 (−19; −5847) | −9116 (−92; −13,654) | −11,320 (−128; −19,777) |
| % difference | −14.6% (−12.1%; −13.0%) | −3.7% (−2.3%; −3.9%) | −11.5% (−15.2%; −8.6%) | −14.3% (−13.5%; −12.4%) |
aTIV adjuvanted TIV, CrI Credible interval, QIV quadrivalent inactivated seasonal influenza vaccine, TIV trivalent inactivated seasonal influenza vaccine
aaTIV ≥ 65 QIV < 65 vs. QIV