Table 5.
Probabilistic means of life-year model outputs for all scenarios, together with absolute and percentage differences between the aTIV ≥ 65 QIV < 65 and QIV groups
| Probabilistic means (95% CrI) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low intensity | Average intensity | ||||
| Low match | Average match | High match | Low match | Average match | |
| Life-years lost | |||||
| aTIV ≥ 65 QIV < 65 | 119,855 (1453; 754,342) | 108,682 (1399; 736,809) | 94,467 (1319; 657,418) | 449,394 (2386; 1,340,734) | 377,962 (2440; 1,148,208) |
| QIV | 123,419 (1498; 763,164) | 125,035 (1411; 852,997) | 113,796 (1395; 776,478) | 463,373 (2398; 1,383,146) | 426,823 (2518; 1,309,509) |
| TIV | 196,872 (1616; 1,004,312) | 137,566 (1452; 909,825) | 111,621 (1396; 771,007) | 621,855 (2877; 1,630,082) | 458,629 (2601; 1,342,590) |
| Differencea | −3564 (−45; −8822) | −16,354 (−11; −116,189) | −19,329 (−76; −119,060) | −13,979 (−13; −42,412) | −48,860 (−78; −161,301) |
| % difference | −2.9% (−3.0%; −1.2%) | −13.1% (−0.8%; −13.6%) | −17.0% (−5.4%; −15.3%) | −3.0% (−0.5%; −3.1%) | −11.45% (−3.1%; −12.3%) |
| QALYs lost | |||||
| aTIV ≥ 65 QIV < 65 | 117,725 (1468; 750,989) | 107,623 (1373; 733,587) | 94,487 (1322; 647,505) | 438,909 (2388; 1,285,147) | 372,051 (2412; 1,132,941) |
| QIV | 120,729 (1485; 743,748) | 122,300 (1436; 845,124) | 111,623 (1385; 763,855) | 450,997 (2369; 1,323,062) | 414,739 (2498; 1,225,306) |
| TIV | 191,326 (1594; 979,054) | 134,239 (1420; 848,383) | 109,669 (1391; 742,570) | 601,487 (2832; 1,571,490) | 445,309 (2621; 1,267,852) |
| Differencea | −3,003 (−17; 7241) | −14,676 (−63; −111,537) | −17,136 (−62; −116,350) | −12,088 (19; −37,916) | −42,688 (−86; −92,365) |
| % difference | −2.5% (−1.1%; 1.0%) | −12.0% (−4.4%; −13.2%) | −15.4% (−4.5%; −15.2%) | −2.7% (−0.8%; −2.9%) | −10.3% (−3.5%; −7.5%) |
| Probabilistic means (95% CrI) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average intensity | High intensity | |||
| High match | Low match | Average match | High match | |
| Life-years lost | ||||
| aTIV ≥ 65 QIV < 65 | 430,921 (2180; 1,270,924) | 820,806 (8712; 1,539,347) | 769,512 (5592; 1,504,797) | 746,076 (8396; 1,478,850) |
| QIV | 494,200 (2303; 1,373,854) | 849,283 (9001; 1,585,870) | 855,562 (6176; 1,693,696) | 854,594 (9581; 1,656,636) |
| TIV | 491,324 (2400; 1,387,800) | 1,044,395 (28,369; 1,807,352) | 900,522 (6859; 1,731,406) | 852,086 (8770; 1,674,012) |
| Differencea | −63,279 (−123; −102,930) | −28,477 (−288; −46,523) | −86,050 (−583; −188,899) | −108,518 (−1185; −177,786) |
| % difference | −12.8% (−5.3%; −7.5%) | −3.4% (−3.2%; −2.9%) | −10.1% (−9.4%; −11.2%) | −12.7% (−12.4%; −10.7%) |
| QALYs lost | ||||
| aTIV ≥ 65 QIV < 65 | 425,351 (2139; 1,244,395) | 799,416 (9050; 1,514,181) | 756,731 (5738; 1,481,470) | 735,083 (8837; 1,411,542) |
| QIV | 480,757 (2305; 1,376,679) | 824,106 (9078; 1,526,880) | 830,698 (6341; 1,630,491) | 829,167 (9502; 1,578,863) |
| TIV | 478,110 (2371; 1,343,693) | 1,008,153 (28,582; 1,729,806) | 872,887 (7000; 1,661,897) | 826,870 (8940; 1,572,709) |
| Differencea | −55,406 (−165; −132,284) | −24,690 (−28; −12,699) | −73,966 (−603; −149,021) | −94,084 (−665; −167,320) |
| % difference | −11.5% (−7.2%; −9.6%) | −3.0% (−0.3%; −0.8%) | −8.9% (−9.5%; −9.1%) | −11.3% (−7.0%; −10.6%) |
aTIV adjuvanted TIV, CrI credible interval, QALY quality-adjusted life-year, QIV quadrivalent inactivated seasonal influenza vaccine, TIV trivalent inactivated seasonal influenza vaccine
aaTIV ≥ 65 QIV < 65 vs. QIV