Table 6.
Probabilistic means of cost model outputs for all scenarios, together with absolute and percentage differences between the aTIV ≥ 65 QIV < 65 and QIV groups
| Probabilistic means (95% CrI) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low intensity | Average intensity | ||||
| Low match | Average match | High match | Low match | Average match | |
| Total direct cost ($) | |||||
| aTIV ≥ 65 QIV < 65 | 5,862,744,268 (4,979,922,003; 10,166,329,974) | 5,796,738,194 (4,994,456,377; 10,204,589,456) | 5,698,162,740 (4,292,767,662; 9,643,329,431) | 8,042,255,362 (5,017,513,611; 13,684,333,296) | 7,637,145,164 (5,030,839,595; 12,801,170,782) |
| QIV | 5,878,055,661 (4,982,789,561; 10,145,399,899) | 5,878,094,283 (5,001,678,875; 10,603,198,208) | 5,822,014,487 (4,294,639,371; 10,273,676,447) | 8,101,747,787 (5,015,458,077; 13,751,296,307) | 7,859,208,792 (5,025,722,591; 13,373,063,888) |
| TIV | 5,739,239,448 (4,378,561,262; 10,856,173,435) | 5,342,177,037 (4,391,573,217; 10,286,682,937) | 5,175,843,264 (3,709,083,469; 9,818,803,927) | 8,460,800,122 (4,421,920,239; 14,362,290,693) | 7,448,134,136 (4,420,810,998; 12,886,597,651) |
| Differencea | −15,311,393 (−2,867,558; 20,930,076) | −81,356,090 (−7,222,498; −398,608,752) | −123,851,747 (−1,871,709; −630,347,016) | −59,492,425 (2,055,534; −66,963,011) | −222,063,629 (5,117,004; −571,893,106) |
| % difference | −0.3% (−0.1%; 0.2%) | −1.4% (−0.1%; −3.8%) | −2.1% (0%; −6.1%) | −0.7% (0%; −0.5%) | −2.8% (−0.5%; −3.1%) |
| Indirect cost ($) | |||||
| aTIV ≥ 65 QIV < 65 | 1,110,302,032 (13,854,187; 6,784,356,482) | 1,032,491,013 (13,489,616; 6,797,683,492) | 935,607,459 (13,392,215; 6,020,317,629) | 3,970,902,930 (23,200,992; 11,022,832,351) | 3,493,632,292 (21,642,149; 10,008,866,236) |
| QIV | 1,121,879,432 (13,857,192; 6,894,131,583) | 1,122,205,497 (13,412,778; 7,266,508,478) | 1,034,308,658 (13,623,912; 6,824,717,033) | 4,029,749,632 (23,517,142; 11,121,157,288) | 3,710,329,636 (22,568,815; 10,539,753,244) |
| TIV | 1,742,858,530 (14,947,014; 8,509,014,244) | 1,221,436,489 (13,965,662; 7,659,444,819) | 1,021,275,371 (13,674,913; 6,658,587,239) | 5,264,980,704 (27,958,457; 12,760,578,793) | 3,972,405,432 (22,813,591; 10,773,920,531) |
| Differencea | −11,577,400 (−3005; −109,775,101) | −89,714,484 (76,838; −468,824,986 | −98,701,199 (−231,697; −804,399,404) | −58,846,702 (−316,150; −98,324,937) | −216,697,344 (−926,666; −530,887,008) |
| % difference | −1.0% (0; −1.6%) | −8.0% (0.6%; −6.5%) | −9.5% (−1.7%; −11.8%) | −1.5% (−1.3%; −0.9%) | −5.8% (−4.1%; −5.0%) |
| Total direct + indirect cost ($) | |||||
| aTIV ≥ 65 QIV < 65 | 6,973,046,301 (5,003,286,410; 16,935,685,977) | 6,829,229,207 (5,014,149,292; 17,041,186,131) | 6,633,770,199 (4,335,127,694; 15,573,397,118) | 12,013,158,292 (5,051,828,358; 24,754,660,792) | 11,130,777,456 5,059,015,169; 22,495,970,672) |
| QIV | 6,999,935,094 (5,012,016,015; 16,969,916,361) | 7,000,299,780 (5,025,257,724; 17,873,288,303) | 6,856,323,145 (4,335,505,451; 16,786,551,891) | 12,131,497,418 (5,051,677,478; 24,808,699,146) | 11,569,538,428 (5,059,573,085; 23,847,488,759) |
| TIV | 7,482,097,978 (4,413,863,390; 19,288,387,147) | 6,563,613,526 (4,415,528,049; 17,916,981,003) | 6,197,118,635 (3,781,220,870; 16,424,107,679) | 13,725,780,826 (4,457,920,325; 26,960,720,664) | 11,420,539,567 (4,454,804,797; 23,556,900,364) |
| Differencea | −26,888,793 (−8,729,605; −34,230,384) | −171,070,573 (−11,108,432; −832,102,172) | −222,552,946 (−377,757; −1,213,154,773) | −118,339,127 (150,880; −54,038,354) | −438,760,972 |
| % difference | −0.4% (−0.2%; −0.2%) | −2.4% (−0.2%; −4.7%) | −3.2% (0%; −7.2%) | −1.0% (0%; −0.2%) | −3.8% (0%; −5.7%) |
| Probabilistic means (95% CrI) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average intensity | High intensity | |||
| High match | Low match | Average match | High match | |
| Total direct cost ($) | ||||
| aTIV ≥ 65 QIV < 65 | 7,986,717,334 (4,477,887,289; 13,311,825,736) | 10,451,882,571 (5,131,545,727; 14,743,859,812) | 10,280,324,161 (5,090,903,332; 15,151,961,976) | 10,166,916,234 (5,094,458,505; 14,819,582,203) |
| QIV | 8,265,153,875 (4,568,855,041; 14,250,701,310) | 10,577,579,955 (5,114,923,273; 14,940,387,210) | 10,643,914,304 (5,087,375,982; 15,671,318,987) | 10,642,258,998 (5,124,313,065; 15,497,524,847) |
| TIV | 7,621,849,879 (3,829,515,363; 13,262,097,930) | 11,129,946,026 (4,624,382,452; 15,498,063,020) | 10,304,309,619, (4,490,331,834; 15,587,278,564) | 10,018,298,331 (4,499,448,132; 14,906,251,468) |
| Differencea | −278,436,541 (−90,967,751; −938,875,574) | −125,697,384 (16,622,455; −196,527,398) | −363,590,142 (3,527,350; −519,357,010) | −475,342,764 (−29,854,560; −677,942,645) |
| % difference | −3.4% (−2.0%; −6.6%) | −1.2% (0.3%; −1.3%) | −3.4% (0.1%; −3.3%) | −4.5% (−0.6%; −4.4%) |
| Indirect cost ($) | ||||
| aTIV ≥ 65 QIV < 65 | 3,973,558,988 (22,931,245; 10,755,438,916) | 7,084,181,963 (86,711,992; 12,413,064,115) | 6,977,144,522 (64,687,791; 13,166,770,234) | 6,847,245,982 (96,087,031; 12,647,790,170) |
| QIV | 4,251,961,937 (23,716,365; 11,446,478,381) | 7,206,819,673 (91,200,807; 12,682,056,752) | 7,314,457,858 (56,299,005; 13,684,890,330) | 7,306,436,705 (94,599,232; 13,393,293,148) |
| TIV | 4,235,281,989 (23,738,955; 11,275,778,442) | 8,652,279,149 (261,563,517; 13,974,858,650) | 7,656,940,347 (71,689,988; 14,130,577,268) | 7,290,869,681 (85,840,012; 13,337,119,616) |
| Differencea | −278,402,949 (−785,449; −691,039,465) | −122,637,710 (−4,488,815; −268,992,637) | −337,313,335 (8,388,786; −518,120,096) | −459,190,723 (1,487,799; −745,502,978) |
| % difference | −6.5% (−3.3%; −6.0%) | −1.7% (−4.9%; −2.1%) | −4.6% (14.9%; −3.8%) | −6.3% (1.6%; −5.6%) |
| Total direct + indirect cost ($) | ||||
| aTIV ≥ 65 QIV < 65 | 11,960,276,322 (4,576,925,878; 24,229,988,647) | 17,536,064,533 (5,226,804,809; 27,034,351,861) | 17,257,468,684 (5,156,471,377; 28,168,163,497) | 17,014,162,216 (5,187,077,012; 27,323,581,109) |
| QIV | 12,517,115,812 (4,670,390,664; 25,768,606,570) | 17,784,399,628 (5,200,635,357; 27,440,685,930) | 17,958,372,161 (5,138,305,995; 29,275,883,763) | 17,948,695,702 (5,232,732,541; 28,800,572,607) |
| TIV | 11,857,131,868 (3,928,358,136; 24,373,203,580) | 19,782,225,175 (4,885,909,124; 29,392,587,997) | 17,961,249,966 (4,545,947,757; 29,714,206,125) | 17,309,168,012 (4,570,594,151; 28,079,994,755) |
| Differencea | −556,839,490 (−93,464,786; −1,538,617,923) | −248,335,094 (26,169,452; −406,334,069) | −700,903,477 (18,165,382; −1,107,720,266) | −934,533,487 (−45,655,530; −1,476,991,498) |
| % difference | −4.4% (−2.0%; −6.0%) | −1.4% (0.5%; −1.5%) | −3.9% (0.4%; −3.8%) | −5.2% (−0.9%; −5.1%) |
aTIV adjuvanted TIV, CrI credible interval, QIV quadrivalent inactivated seasonal influenza vaccine, TIV trivalent inactivated seasonal influenza vaccine
aaTIV ≥ 65 QIV < 65 vs. QIV