Table 2.
Summaries of predicted outbreak duration in days, number of culled animals and number of IP of 150 model simulations for the scenario with vaccination (V) and without vaccination (NV) in comparison with the recorded data of the 1965/66 FMD outbreak in Switzerland.
| Outbreak duration |
Animals culled |
Infected Premises |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| V | NV | V | NV | V | NV | |
| Minimum | 12 | 12 | 123 | 129 | 1 | 1 |
| 25th percentile | 25 | 24 | 249 | 285 | 5 | 6 |
| Median | 56 | 79 | 605 | 774 | 20 | 20 |
| 75th percentile | 224 | 725 | 4088 | 865,785 | 176 | 35,818 |
| 90th percentile | 520 | 553 | 30,381 | 974,246 | 1690 | 39,623 |
| 92.5th percentile | 656 | 718 | 31,299 | 994,246 | 1876 | 40,272 |
| 95th percentile | 714 | 724 | 32,400 | 1,012,856 | 2080 | 41,280 |
| 97.5th percentile | 718 | 725 | 35,522 | 1,030,458 | 2378 | 42,240 |
| Maximum | 730 | 730 | 55,990 | 1,195,757 | 3180 | 47,122 |
The outbreak duration of the 1965/66 epidemic was 150 days with 51,215 animals in 942 premises culled.