Table 2.
Lifespans among elected leaders and runner-up candidates in UK prime minister elections, 1722-2015
Candidate | Last election | Age at election | Age at death | Served in office | Expected/observed years alive after last election |
Sir William Wyndham, 3rd Baronet | 1722 | 34 | 52 | No | 31/18 |
Henry St John, 1st Viscount Bolingbroke | 1734 | 56 | 73 | No | 16/17 |
William Pulteney | 1741 | 57 | 80 | No | 16/23 |
Robert Walpole | 1741 | 65 | 68 | Yes | 11/3 |
Henry Pelham | 1747 | 53 | 59 | Yes | 18/6 |
Thomas Pelham-Holles, 1st Duke of Newcastle upon Tyne and 1st Duke of Newcastle-under-Lyne | 1761 | 68 | 75 | Yes | 10/7 |
Augustus Henry FitzRoy, 3rd Duke of Grafton | 1768 | 33 | 75 | Yes | 32/42 |
Marques of Rockingham | 1780 | 50 | 52 | No | 20/2 |
Lord Frederick North | 1780 | 48 | 60 | Yes | 21/12 |
William Pitt “The Younger” | 1796 | 37 | 46 | Yes | 29/9 |
Charles James Fox | 1802 | 53 | 57 | No | 18/4 |
Henry Addington | 1802 | 45 | 86 | Yes | 23/41 |
William Bentinck Duke of Portland | 1807 | 69 | 71 | Yes | 9/2 |
Robert Banks Jenkinson Earl of Liverpool | 1826 | 56 | 58 | Yes | 16/2 |
Marques of Lansdowne | 1830 | 50 | 82 | No | 20/32 |
Charles Grey, 2nd Earl Grey | 1832 | 68 | 81 | Yes | 9/13 |
Robert Peel | 1841 | 46 | 62 | Yes | 23/16 |
John Russell | 1847 | 55 | 85 | Yes | 16/30 |
Henry John Temple, 3rd Viscount Palmerston | 1865 | 80 | 80 | Yes | 5/0 |
Archibald Philip Primrose, 5th Earl of Rosebery, 1st Earl of Midlothian | 1895 | 48 | 82 | No | 21/34 |
Robert Cecil | 1900 | 70 | 73 | Yes | 8/3 |
Sir Henry Campbell-Bannerman | 1906 | 70 | 71 | Yes | 9/1 |
Arthur James Balfour, 1st Earl of Balfour | 1910 | 62 | 81 | No | 13/19 |
Herbert Asquith | 1910 | 58 | 75 | Yes | 16/17 |
John Robert Clynes | 1922 | 53 | 80 | No | 19/27 |
Andrew Bonar Law | 1922 | 64 | 65 | Yes | 12/1 |
James Ramsay MacDonald | 1929 | 63 | 71 | Yes | 12/8 |
Arthur Henderson | 1931 | 68 | 72 | No | 10/4 |
Stanley Baldwin | 1935 | 68 | 80 | Yes | 10/12 |
Sir Winston Leonard Spencer-Churchill | 1951 | 77 | 90 | Yes | 6/13 |
Anthony Eden | 1955 | 58 | 79 | Yes | 17/21 |
Hugh Todd Naylor Gaitskell | 1959 | 53 | 56 | No | 21/3 |
Harold Macmillan | 1959 | 65 | 92 | Yes | 13/27 |
Alexander Frederick Douglas-Home, Baron Home of the Hirsel | 1964 | 61 | 92 | No | 15/31 |
Sir Edward Richard George “Ted” Heath | 1970 | 54 | 89 | Yes | 20/35 |
Leonard James Callaghan | 1979 | 67 | 92 | No | 12/25 |
Michael Mackintosh Foot | 1983 | 70 | 96 | No | 11/26 |
Margaret Thatcher | 1987 | 62 | 87 | Yes | 16/25 |
Neil Gordon Kinnock | 1992 | 50 | – | No | 27/23 |
William Jefferson Hague | 2001 | 40 | – | No | 38/14 |
Michael Howard, Baron Howard of Lympne | 2005 | 64 | – | No | 18/10 |
Tony Blair | 2005 | 52 | – | Yes | 28/10 |
James Gordon Brown | 2010 | 59 | – | No | 23/5 |
Edward Samuel “Ed” Miliband | 2015 | 46 | – | No | 35/0 |
David Cameron | 2015 | 49 | – | Yes | 33/0 |
Expected years of life after national election were based on average person of same age and sex as candidate, taken from historical life tables as described in Methods. Premature death was defined by whether candidate lived strictly less than would be expected for average person in population of same age and sex as candidate (that is, observed<expected life expectancy). Living candidates who exceeded their demographically determined life expectancy were identified as non-premature deaths. Periods reflect candidates who were elected after 2013, last year in life tables. Dashes indicate still living candidate.