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. 2015 Dec 14;351:h6424. doi: 10.1136/bmj.h6424

Table 2.

Lifespans among elected leaders and runner-up candidates in UK prime minister elections, 1722-2015

Candidate Last election Age at election Age at death Served in office Expected/observed years alive after last election
Sir William Wyndham, 3rd Baronet 1722 34 52 No 31/18
Henry St John, 1st Viscount Bolingbroke 1734 56 73 No 16/17
William Pulteney 1741 57 80 No 16/23
Robert Walpole 1741 65 68 Yes 11/3
Henry Pelham 1747 53 59 Yes 18/6
Thomas Pelham-Holles, 1st Duke of Newcastle upon Tyne and 1st Duke of Newcastle-under-Lyne 1761 68 75 Yes 10/7
Augustus Henry FitzRoy, 3rd Duke of Grafton 1768 33 75 Yes 32/42
Marques of Rockingham 1780 50 52 No 20/2
Lord Frederick North 1780 48 60 Yes 21/12
William Pitt “The Younger” 1796 37 46 Yes 29/9
Charles James Fox 1802 53 57 No 18/4
Henry Addington 1802 45 86 Yes 23/41
William Bentinck Duke of Portland 1807 69 71 Yes 9/2
Robert Banks Jenkinson Earl of Liverpool 1826 56 58 Yes 16/2
Marques of Lansdowne 1830 50 82 No 20/32
Charles Grey, 2nd Earl Grey 1832 68 81 Yes 9/13
Robert Peel 1841 46 62 Yes 23/16
John Russell 1847 55 85 Yes 16/30
Henry John Temple, 3rd Viscount Palmerston 1865 80 80 Yes 5/0
Archibald Philip Primrose, 5th Earl of Rosebery, 1st Earl of Midlothian 1895 48 82 No 21/34
Robert Cecil 1900 70 73 Yes 8/3
Sir Henry Campbell-Bannerman 1906 70 71 Yes 9/1
Arthur James Balfour, 1st Earl of Balfour 1910 62 81 No 13/19
Herbert Asquith 1910 58 75 Yes 16/17
John Robert Clynes 1922 53 80 No 19/27
Andrew Bonar Law 1922 64 65 Yes 12/1
James Ramsay MacDonald 1929 63 71 Yes 12/8
Arthur Henderson 1931 68 72 No 10/4
Stanley Baldwin 1935 68 80 Yes 10/12
Sir Winston Leonard Spencer-Churchill 1951 77 90 Yes 6/13
Anthony Eden 1955 58 79 Yes 17/21
Hugh Todd Naylor Gaitskell 1959 53 56 No 21/3
Harold Macmillan 1959 65 92 Yes 13/27
Alexander Frederick Douglas-Home, Baron Home of the Hirsel 1964 61 92 No 15/31
Sir Edward Richard George “Ted” Heath 1970 54 89 Yes 20/35
Leonard James Callaghan 1979 67 92 No 12/25
Michael Mackintosh Foot 1983 70 96 No 11/26
Margaret Thatcher 1987 62 87 Yes 16/25
Neil Gordon Kinnock 1992 50 No 27/23
William Jefferson Hague 2001 40 No 38/14
Michael Howard, Baron Howard of Lympne 2005 64 No 18/10
Tony Blair 2005 52 Yes 28/10
James Gordon Brown 2010 59 No 23/5
Edward Samuel “Ed” Miliband 2015 46 No 35/0
David Cameron 2015 49 Yes 33/0

Expected years of life after national election were based on average person of same age and sex as candidate, taken from historical life tables as described in Methods. Premature death was defined by whether candidate lived strictly less than would be expected for average person in population of same age and sex as candidate (that is, observed<expected life expectancy). Living candidates who exceeded their demographically determined life expectancy were identified as non-premature deaths. Periods reflect candidates who were elected after 2013, last year in life tables. Dashes indicate still living candidate.