Table 3.
Optimal segmentations of flowering date series (BBCH 61 stage) using piecewise constant models for series where the optimal J-segment model according to the mBIC was not retained for the comparison in Table 2: observation period, change-point instant and amplitude, global standard deviation, optimal segmentation posterior probability, model posterior probability.
| Location | Cultivar | Observation period | Change point 1 | Change point 2 | Standard deviation | Posterior probability | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Instant | Amplitude | Instant | Amplitude | Segmentation | Model | ||||
| Nîmes | Golden D. | 1974–2013 | – | – | 7.44 | 1 | 0.87 | ||
| Nîmes | Gala | 1979–2013 | – | – | 7.12 | 1 | 0.77 | ||
| Nîmes | Fuji | 1983–2013 | – | – | 8.17 | 1 | 0.68 | ||
| Bonn | Golden D. | 1958–2013 | 1962 | 13.81 | 1989 | −11.12 | 7.21 | 0.28 | 0.49 |
| Sao Joaquim | Golden D. | 1972–2013 | 1974 | −21.87 | 10.06 | 0.58 | 0.47 | ||
| Sao Joaquim | Gala | 1972–2013 | 1975 | −29.16 | 8.87 | 0.72 | 0.73 | ||
| Caçador | Golden D. | 1984–2013 | – | – | 10.53 | 1 | 0.54 | ||
| Caçador | Gala | 1982–2013 | 1988 | −13.42 | 2012 | −17.25 | 7.82 | 0.27 | 0.56 |