Figure 2. Consequences of human-mediated dog movements under endemic and epidemic conditions with varying incidence-dependent limits on local transmission.

(a,b) Probability of rabies elimination from Region VI under (a) endemic and (b) epidemic scenarios, following three heterogeneous coverage vaccination campaigns based on those carried out annually during 2010–2012. Results were obtained for three human-mediated dog movement scenarios: no human-mediated movement (No HMM), and human-mediated movements as inferred for Region VI and for Bali⁹. Values from 0.8–1.2 were tested for the reproduction number (R_C) to which rabies in a barangay was constrained following the occurrence ≥5 cases in a month. Binomial 95% confidence intervals are indicated (bars). (c,d) Time to elimination from the onset of vaccination for the simulations in (a) and (b). Means (lines) and 95 percentile intervals (bars) are based only on simulations where elimination was successful. 95 percentile intervals are obtained by removing the top and bottom 2.5% of observations of time to elimination from ordered lists of the values.