Table 2. Projections (average ± standard deviation) for the start, end (Julian days; jd), and length (days; d) of production season and the total annual production for the reference period 1971–2000, and two future periods, 2046–2065 and 2081–2100.
| Mean average date for each period | Mean average change relative to 1971–2000 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (n = 77 scénarios) | (n = 77 scénarios) | ||||||
| Region | Variable | (1971–2000) | (2046–2065) | (2081–2100) | (2046–2065) | (2081–2100) | |
| BSL | Start (J.d) | 86.2 ± 1.4 | 76.5 ± 5.3 | 69.3 ± 7.9 | -9.7 ± 5.0 | -16.9 ± 7.7 | |
| End (J.d) | 123.1 ± 0.8 | 114.0 ± 5.4 | 108.2 ± 7.7 | -9.1 ± 5.2 | -14.8 ± 7.5 | ||
| Length (d) | 43.9 ± 1.9 | 44.5 ± 6.3 | 45.6 ± 8.1 | 0.6 ± 5.8 | 1.7 ± 7.5 | ||
| CTS | Start (J.d) | 81.3 ± 1.5 | 71.1 ± 5.1 | 64.3 ± 7.0 | -10.3 ± 4.8 | -17.0 ± 6.7 | |
| End (J.d) | 118.3 ± 0.9 | 108.6 ± 4.7 | 102.8 ± 7.1 | -9.7 ± 4.5 | -15.5 ± 6.9 | ||
| Length (d) | 44.0 ± 2.0 | 44.2 ± 6.3 | 44.9 ± 8.7 | 0.2 ± 5.3 | 0.9 ± 7.5 | ||
| BEA | Start (J.d) | 74.5 ± 1.9 | 62.7 ± 5.3 | 55.5 ± 7.1 | -11.8 ± 5.5 | -19.0 ± 7.2 | |
| End (J.d) | 114.1 ± 1.1 | 103.2 ± 5.1 | 97.2 ± 7.1 | -10.9 ± 4.8 | -17.0 ± 6.9 | ||
| Length (d) | 46.6 ± 2.5 | 47.1 ± 7.6 | 47.8 ± 9.2 | 0.5 ± 7.0 | 1.2 ± 8.2 | ||
| QUE | Start (J.d) | 82.5 ± 1.8 | 72.4 ± 4.9 | 65.9 ± 6.6 | -10.0 ± 4.5 | -16.6 ± 6.4 | |
| End (J.d) | 118.2 ± 0.8 | 108.7 ± 4.6 | 103.3 ± 6.6 | -9.5 ± 4.5 | -14.9 ± 6.4 | ||
| Length (d) | 42.7 ± 2.0 | 42.9 ± 6.2 | 43.8 ± 8.1 | 0.3 ± 5.2 | 1.1 ± 7.0 | ||
| MAU | Start (J.d) | 82.5 ± 1.6 | 73.5 ± 4.7 | 67.3 ± 6.3 | -9.0 ± 4.2 | -15.1 ± 5.9 | |
| End (J.d) | 116.7 ± 0.9 | 107.8 ± 4.7 | 102.7 ± 6.1 | -8.9 ± 4.6 | -14.0 ± 5.9 | ||
| Length (d) | 41.2 ± 1.9 | 41.0 ± 6.2 | 41.8 ± 7.4 | -0.3 ± 5.3 | 0.6 ± 6.3 | ||
| LAN | Start (J.d) | 77.3 ± 1.5 | 67.0 ± 4.8 | 60.4 ± 6.6 | -10.4 ± 4.6 | -16.9 ± 6.2 | |
| End (J.d) | 113.5 ± 0.8 | 103.2 ± 4.9 | 98.0 ± 6.3 | -10.3 ± 4.7 | -15.5 ± 6.1 | ||
| Length (d) | 43.1 ± 1.9 | 43.0 ± 6.6 | 44.1 ± 7.9 | -0.2 ± 5.9 | 1.0 ± 6.9 | ||
| EST | Start (J.d) | 67.5 ± 1.9 | 55.0 ± 5.7 | 49.0 ± 7.7 | -12.4 ± 6.1 | -18.4 ± 7.6 | |
| End (J.d) | 109.4 ± 1.1 | 98.2 ± 5.7 | 91.7 ± 7.6 | -11.2 ± 5.3 | -17.6 ± 7.2 | ||
| Length (d) | 48.9 ± 2.3 | 49.6 ± 8.5 | 48.8 ± 10.4 | 0.7 ± 8.2 | -0.1 ± 9.6 | ||
| LAU | Start (J.d) | 76.3 ± 1.5 | 64.7 ± 5.5 | 57.9 ± 6.8 | -11.6 ± 5.5 | -18.4 ± 6.6 | |
| End (J.d) | 111.6 ± 0.9 | 101.3 ± 4.9 | 95.8 ± 6.7 | -10.3 ± 4.7 | -15.8 ± 6.6 | ||
| Length (d) | 42.3 ± 1.7 | 43.3 ± 7.0 | 44.6 ± 7.7 | 1.0 ± 6.6 | 2.3 ± 7.1 | ||
| CDQ | Start (J.d) | 69.4 ± 1.7 | 56.3 ± 5.3 | 50.1 ± 7.2 | -13.1 ± 5.6 | -19.3 ± 7.1 | |
| End (J.d) | 108.7 ± 1.1 | 98.4 ± 4.6 | 92.3 ± 6.9 | -10.3 ± 4.4 | -16.4 ± 6.7 | ||
| Length (d) | 46.2 ± 2.2 | 48.7 ± 7.2 | 48.6 ± 9.1 | 2.4 ± 6.9 | 2.4 ± 8.5 | ||
| STY | Start (J.d) | 61.7 ± 1.6 | 48.3 ± 6.3 | 42.9 ± 7.6 | -13.4 ± 6.4 | -18.8 ± 7.5 | |
| End (J.d) | 103.5 ± 1.4 | 92.7 ± 5.0 | 86.2 ± 7.0 | -10.8 ± 4.7 | -17.3 ± 6.8 | ||
| Length (d) | 48.8 ± 1.9 | 50.8 ± 8.5 | 49.7 ± 10.0 | 2.1 ± 7.9 | 0.9 ± 9.3 | ||
| VAL | Start (J.d) | 60.6 ± 1.6 | 47.2 ± 6.3 | 42.1 ± 7.5 | -13.3 ± 5.9 | -18.5 ± 7.0 | |
| End (J.d) | 102.7 ± 1.3 | 91.7 ± 4.9 | 85.9 ± 6.9 | -11.0 ± 4.6 | -16.8 ± 6.8 | ||
| Length (d) | 49.1 ± 2.3 | 51.0 ± 8.5 | 50.0 ± 10.1 | 1.9 ± 7.5 | 0.9 ± 8.9 | ||
Shifts in season start and end between the reference (1971–2000) and future periods are also reported as delta days; d). It is important to note that the ± standard deviation values reported are indicative of uncertainty in the mean Julian date between the 77 climate scenarios and do not represent year to year variability. Please see Fig 1 title for region acronyms.