Table 1. Estimated parameters for the non-strain-specific model fit to the Carenet-NCSF data.

Parameter	Symbol	Initial range	Prior dist-ribution	Model 1	Model 2	Model 3	Model 4	Model 5	Model 6	Model 7	Model 8	Model 9	Model 10
Basic reproductive number	R0 = β0/γ	15 to 30	U (5,30)	20.0	17.3	15.5	19.5	15.1	20.9	13.6	21.6	17.3	15.8
Relative infectiousness of mild/asymptomatic infections	ρA	0.1 to 0.3	U (0,0.5)	0.16	0.19	0.23	0.16	0.24	0.11	0.29	0.12	0.19	0.23
Amplitude of seasonality in transmission	b	0.05 to 0.1	U (0,0.3)	0.095	0.086	0.084	0.094	0.085	0.089	0.081	0.095	0.086	0.084
Seasonal offset	ϕ	−0.03 to 0.07 years	U (−0.5,0.5)	−0.022	0.020	0.011	0.008	−0.028	0.015	0.008	−0.004	0.009	0.005
Duration of temporary immunity	1/ω	26 to 39 weeks	U (26,52)	28.4	32.4	31.3	31.4	26.5	30.5	30.9	31.9	35.0	35.9
Proportion of vaccinees receiving protection equal to two natural infections	ξ	0.2 to 0.8	U (0,1)	0.48	0.59	0.37	0.90	0.71	0.29	0.85	0.43	0.89	0.98
Hospitalization/reporting rate among < 2 year olds	h0	0.48 to 0.52	U (0,1)	0.52	0.51	0.43	0.50	0.48	0.50	0.44	0.52	0.55	0.53
Relative rate of hospitalization among ≥ 3 year olds	η	0.2 to 0.6	U (0,1)	0.28	0.20	0.21	0.23	0.23	0.20	0.25	0.31	0.15	0.15
Log posterior				−5,191	−5,290	−5,218	−5,112	−5,243	−5,366	−5,236	−5,191	−5,137	−5,098
Model validation
Hospitalization/reporting rate among < 2 year olds at GUH	hG	NA	U (0,1)	0.0155	0.0168	0.0164	0.0163	0.0164	0.0171	0.0163	0.0155	0.0176	0.0175
Log posterior				−7,288	−7,267	−7,271	−7,273	−7,271	−7,265	−7,273	−7,287	−7,264	−7,264