Table 2.
Model comparisons. Values indicate median parameter estimates (2.5th–97.5th quantiles) and information criterion from 2000 RStan simulations (not including warm-up sampling) of each model.
| model | density-dependent | frequency-dependent | frequency-dependent with location-specific transmission rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| R | min: 0.045 (0.043–0.048)a | 1.01 (0.95–1.08) | 0.95 (0.89–1.02) |
| max: 2.68 (2.53–2.85) | |||
 |
— | — | 2.58 (2.08–3.17) |
| σ | 1.05 (0.90–1.22) | 0.78 (0.68–0.91) | 0.89 (0.76–1.07) |
| α | 0.11 (0.09–0.14) | 0.13 (0.11–0.15) | 0.12 (0.1–0.14) |
| number of parameters | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| approximate AIC | 3821.11 | 3557.39 | 3498.09 |
| WAIC | 7358.52 | 7235.64 | 6528.21 |
aReproductive values are calculated using the inferred posterior distribution of β (results not shown). The minimum value refers to R at the lowest population estimate for any one latitude degree and time point, and the maximum value refers to R at the largest population estimate.