N
|
Population size for the six patches |
2.5 × 106
|
[52, 53] |
μ
|
Mortality/birth Rate |
|
[43] |
δ
|
Natural recovery period |
26 weeks (24, 28) |
[44–46] |
σ
1
|
Period between liver stage and blood-stage |
7 days (5–10) |
[47–49] |
σ
2
|
Period between blood-stage and onset of
gametocytemia |
2 weeks (1.8, 2.2) |
[44, 50] |
r
|
AL elimination half-life |
6 days (4, 8) |
[51] |
τ
|
Time to seek treatment |
1/2 week |
Expert opinion |
p
|
Proportion of local infected population receiving
treatment |
0.95 |
[35, 36] |
pf
yr
|
Proportion of foreign infected population that receive
treatment in a local patch |
pf
1 = 0.5655(0.5652, 0.5658)
(pre April 2005)pf
2 = 0.5500 (0.5494,
0.5506) (post April 2005) |
Estimated from model fitting process |
seas
i
|
Seasonal forcing function |
Derived from data |
[38] |
β
i
|
Annual number of mosquito bites per person x proportion
of bites testing positive for sporozoites for patch
i
|
β
TC
= 0.334 (0.244, 0.425)
β
MB = 2.178
(2.056, 2.300) β
UJ
= 0.805 (0.700, 0.910)
β
NK = 1.330
(1.310, 1.350) β
BB
= 8.304 (7.903, 8.705)
β
MP = 94.999
(93.327, 96.671) |
Estimated from model fitting process |
|
Rate of movement between sub-patch 2 and sub-patch
1 |
2 weeks−1(1.75, 2.25) |
Expert opinion |
|
Rate of movement between 5 Mpumalanga
municipalities |
1/48.603 (1/51.328, 1/45.787)
weeks−1
|
Estimated from model fitting process |
|
Maputo residents: Rate of movement between Maputo and 5
Mpumalanga municipalities |
(pre-April 2005) (post April 2005) |
Estimated from model fitting process |
|
Mpumalanga residents: Rate of movement between 5
Mpumalanga municipalities and Maputo |
|
Estimated from model fitting process |
fwgt
|
Foreign movement weight intensity |
8.385 (8.232, 8.537) |
Estimated from model fitting process |
lwgt
|
Local movement weight intensity |
2.613 (2.607, 2.618) |
Estimated from model fitting process |
vc[i,
t] |
vccov[i,
t] × vef
|
|
|
vccov[i,
t] |
Vector Control Coverage |
0.22–0.90 |
Derived from data |
vef
|
Effectiveness of vector control |
0.900 (0.897, 0.903) |
Estimated from model fitting process |