Table 2. Comparison of model outcomes for STI prevalence and infections averted using point estimates to those from a Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis.
| Point Estimate | Sensitivity analysis median (2.5,97.5 percentile) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No intervention | Condoms | Condoms + screen | No intervention | Condoms | Condoms + screen | |
| Prevalence | ||||||
| HIV | 0.21% | 0.20% | 0.20% | 0.19% (0.01–4.79) | 0.19% (0.07–0.40) | 0.19% (0.07–0.40) |
| Hepatitis B | 1.26% | 1.18% | 0.63% | 1.16% (0.34–2.68) | 1.07% (0.31–2.51) | 0.59% (0.17–1.46) |
| Syphilis* | 0.31% | 0.06% | 0.01% | 0.27% (0.01–2.04) | 0.06% (0.01–0.18) | 0.01% (0.00–0.19) |
| Chlamydia | 6.8% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 9.0% (6.8–11.0) | 7.2% (4.2–9.5) | 4.4% (2.3–6.1) |
| Gonorrhoea* | 0.30% | 0.07% | 0.02% | 0.30% (0.04–1.60) | 0.07% (0.03–0.14) | 0.02% (0.01–0.10) |
| Infections averted per year | ||||||
| HIV | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.17 (0.01–4.79) | 0.17 (0.01–4.79) | ||
| Hepatitis B | 5 | 6 | 5 (1–16) | 6 (1–19) | ||
| Syphilis* | 66 | 67 | 54 (0–479) | 55 (0–466) | ||
| Chlamydia | 196 | 222 | 172 (62–489) | 193 (0–523) | ||
| Gonorrhoea* | 113 | 114 | 108 (1–677) | 109 (1–681) | ||
*Due to the large right skew of infections prevented and prevalence, the 0–95 percentiles have been used as the 95%CrI.