Table 5.
Description of outbreaks simulated in a pig unit for Georgia 2007/1 ASFV strain
| Parameter | Model 1 (L = 3 days) | Model 2 (L = 4 days) | Model 3 (L = 5days) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Minimum infectious period duration, T = 3–6 days | |||
| Probability that outbreak does not occur after ASFV introduction to the farm | 0·22 | 0·17 | 0·07 |
| Probability that outbreak does not lead to infection of all population after ASFV introduction to the farm | 0·65 | 0·45 | 0·17 |
| Maximum infectious period duration, T = 3–14 days | |||
| Probability that outbreak does not occur after introduction of ASFV to the farm | 0·16 | 0·10 | 0·07 |
| Probability that outbreak does not lead to infection of all population after ASFV introduction to the farm | 0·27 | 0·18 | 0·10 |
ASFV, African swine fever virus.