DID
	SCD	DCT	Provincial EDR	Provincial CSSI	Prefecture CSSI
Male (ref: female)	−0.021	−0.021	−0.020	−0.021	−0.021
Birth quarter (ref: quarter 1)
Quarter 2	0.065	0.064	0.067	0.066	0.064
Quarter 3	0.120	0.120	0.125	0.122	0.121
Quarter 4	0.117†	0.117†	0.121*	0.120*	0.117†
Birth year		0.084
Birth year2		−0.027
Birth year3		0.002
Cohort (ref: post-famine)
Pre-famine	0.279***	−0.047	0.374***	0.437†	0.391†
Famine	0.163*	−0.038	0.316**	0.477	0.340
Provincial EDR			0.033*
Provincial EDR × Pre-famine			−0.012
Provincial EDR × Famine			−0.021*
Provincial CSSI				−0.081*
Provincial CSSI × Pre-famine				−0.004
Provincial CSSI × Famine				−0.008
Prefecture CSSI					0.003
Prefecture CSSI × Pre-famine					−0.003
Prefecture CSSI × Pre-famine					−0.004

	Famine cohort probit			Famine cohort 2SLS
	Provincial EDR	Provincial CSSI	Prefecture CSSI	First stage	Second stage
Male (ref: female)	0.026	0.020	0.021	−0.353	0.006
Birth quarter (ref: quarter 1)
Quarter 2	0.099	0.106	0.107	1.166	0.032
Quarter 3	0.139	0.138	0.132	1.167	0.039
Quarter 4	0.084	0.092	0.078	0.131	0.023
Provincial EDR	−0.022**
Provincial CSSI		−0.013**
Prefecture CSSI			−0.009†		−0.004
N of exaggerations				−0.112*
N of counties exaggerating
grain yields				1.646***

Note: SCD = simple cohort difference; DCT = deviation from cohort trend; DID = difference-in-differences; 2SLS = two-stage least squares; EDR = excess death rate; CSSI = cohort size shrinkage index. All the models control for gender and birth quarters. The SCD, DCT, and DID models additionally control for provincial fixed effects.

^†p < 0.1;

^*p < 0.05;

^**p < 0.01;

^***p < 0.001 based on prefecture-level cluster standard errors.