Table B.

Estimating an Individual’s 10-Year Risk for Incident Hard ASCVD

The hypothetical profile provided in Table 5 (the “Individual Example Value” column) is identical for each race and sex group and is based on the overall sample mean. The profile assumes an individual 55 years of age (for which the Ln[Age]=4.01), with a total cholesterol of 213 mg/dL, HDL–C of 50 mg/dL, and an untreated systolic BP of 120 mm Hg. This individual is not a current smoker and does not have diabetes. For the equations, the values for age, lipids, and systolic BP are log transformed. Interactions between age and lipids or age and systolic BP use the natural log of each variable (e.g., Ln[Age]×Ln[Total Cholesterol]).

Calculation of the 10-year risk estimate for hard ASCVD can best be described as a series of steps. The natural log of age, total cholesterol, HDL–C, and systolic BP are first calculated with systolic BP being either a treated or untreated value. Any appropriate interaction terms are then calculated. These values are then multiplied by the coefficients from the equation (“Coefficient” column of Table A) for the specific race-sex group of the individual. The “Coefficient×Value” column in the table provides the results of the multiplication for the risk profile described above.

The sum of the “Coefficient×Value” column is then calculated for the individual. For the profile shown in Table A, this value is shown as “Individual Sum” for each race and sex group.

The estimated 10-year risk of a first hard ASCVD event is formally calculated as 1 minus the survival rate at 10 years (“Baseline Survival” in Table A), raised to the power of the exponent of the “Coefficient×Value” sum minus the race and sex specific overall mean “Coefficient×Value” sum; or, in equation form: $$1-{S_{10}}^{e^{(\mathit{\text{IndX}}\text{'}B-\text{MeanX}\text{'}B)}}$$

Using White men as an example: $$1-{0.9144}^{e^{(60.69-61.18)}}$$ equates to a 5.3% probability of a first hard ASCVD event within 10 years.

ASCVD indicates atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease; BP, blood pressure; and HDL–C, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol.