FIG 10.

Estimated number of days to VDPV emergence from the time of vaccine administration. Distributions show the probability of the time from initiation of the vaccine dose to the VDPV emergence threshold (10 VP1 substitutions for Sabin types 1 and 3, 6 VP1 substitutions for Sabin type 2 [8]) from the two-stage evolution model (Sabin-like to wild isolates) proposed in the text. For type 2, there is a significant probability that VDPV emergence will be reached in long-lived primary infections (30 to 60 days [41]), and so VDPV type 2 genomes can appear within the duration of a single normal infection.