Table 2. Cormack-Jolly-Seber model estimates of apparent annual survival and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) for juvenile New Zealand Southern right whales.

Model	ΔAICc	Nboot	Φ(.)	ΦA1	ΦA2+	Φ(curve)A1	Φ(curve)A2	Φ(curve)A3+	σ	κ
			(95% CI)	(95% CI)	(95% CI)	(95% CI)	(95% CI)	(95% CI)
Φ(.)p(.)	0.00	434	0.96
			(0.85, 1.00)
ΦA2p(.)	1.75	68		0.68	0.99
				(0.38, 1.00)	(0.86, 1.00)
Φ(curve)p(.)	1.86	3				0.76	0.93	0.97	0.69	0.99
						(0.53, 0.99)	(0.76, 1.00)	(0.84, 1.00)
Φ(.)p(90s,00s)	2.16	162	0.96
			(0.83, 1.00)
ΦA2p(90s00s)	3.97	18		0.63	1.00
				(0.34, 1.00)	(0.86, 1.00)
Φ(curve)p(90s00s)	4.12	4				0.74	0.93	0.98	0.73	0.99
						(0.55, 0.98)	(0.78, 1.00)	(0.83, 1.00)
Φ(.)p(t)	4.88	195	0.94
			(0.82, 1.00)
ΦA2p(t)	6.95	66		0.55	1.00
				(0.34, 1.00)	(0.85, 1.00)
Φ(curve)p(t)	7.47	50				0.76	0.93	0.96	0.64	0.97
						(0.54, 0.96)	(0.76, 0.99)	(0.81, 1.00)

Estimates are based on Southern right whales first sampled as calves at the Auckland Islands, New Zealand during two sets of winter field surveys; 1995–1998 and 2006–2009, ranked by AICc, with N_boot: the number of times the model was selected as the best fitting model by AICc during the bootstrap analysis; Φ(.): apparent survival is age-invariant; Φ_A2: apparent survival varies between first and subsequent years of life; Φ_(curve) apparent survival is modelled as a function of age where $\mathrm{\Phi }\left(a\right)=\kappa \{1-\text{exp}(-\frac{a}{\sigma })\}$, with estimates for the first (Φ_(curve)A1), second (Φ_(curve)A2) and third and subsequent years of life (Φ_(curve)A3+) shown; p(.): capture probability is time-invariant; p(t): capture probability varies with capture occasion; p(90s00s): capture probability varies with survey period; estimates of σ and κ are also given for the Φ_(curve) models.