Table 2.

A comparison of modelled outcomes for a range of policies

Policy scenario	Change consumption (%)			Change in purchasing (%)			Change in purchasing (£m)		Change in harm (per year/after 10 years)			Change in harm spending (£m)
	England total	Moderate drinkers	Harmful drinkers	England total	Moderate drinkers	Harmful drinkers	Retailer revenue	Duty + VAT revenue	Deaths	Health QALYs	Crime QALYs	Health	Crime	Employment
General price +10 %	−4.2 %	−3.5 %	−4.5 %	5.7 %	6.7 %	5.2 %	£1,051.70	£4.54	−1,517.77	−12,366.65	−1,621.66	−£161.65	−£98.15	−£337.73
General price +25 %	−10.9 %	−8.8 %	−11.7 %	12.2 %	15.4 %	10.8 %	£2,337.36	−£54.58	−3,785.61	−30,732.92	−4,143.21	−£401.87	−£250.43	−£853.33
Low priced off trade products +25 %	−0.9 %	−0.5 %	−1.4 %	1.6 %	1.0 %	2.0 %	£284.91	£8.40	−524.80	−3,812.94	5.79	−£49.72	−£0.77	−£77.97
Low priced on trade products +25 %	−0.6 %	−0.6 %	−0.4 %	1.4 %	1.6 %	1.5 %	£249.35	£17.30	−133.71	−1,370.61	−718.04	−£19.72	−£48.75	−£13.87
All low priced products + 10 %	−0.6 %	−0.5 %	−0.7 %	1.4 %	1.1 %	1.6 %	£239.14	£14.57	−265.30	−2,092.39	−288.34	−£27.94	−£20.03	−£37.33
Minimum price 15 p (off and on trade)	0.0 %	0.0 %	0.0 %	0.1 %	0.1 %	0.2 %	£21.47	£3.54	−0.88	−5.18	21.09	−£0.30	£1.11	−£1.53
Minimum price 25 p (off and on trade)	−0.1 %	0.0 %	−0.5 %	0.8 %	0.4 %	1.2 %	£137.12	£19.79	−47.36	−330.03	64.40	−£5.36	£3.28	−£36.74
Minimum price 50 p (off and on trade)	−6.7 %	−3.8 %	−10.1 %	6.8 %	4.7 %	8.0 %	£1,337.47	−£66.93	−3,060.23	−2,2353.74	−773.53	−£301.50	−£49.01	−£674.35
Minimum price 70 p (off and on trade)	−17.5 %	−11.5 %	−22.7 %	10.2 %	8.7 %	10.6 %	£2,295.23	−£387.66	−7,262.95	−55,083.73	−2,333.82	−£734.57	−£144.62	−£1,338.66
Minimum price 40 p off and 100 p on trade	−3.4 %	−2.0 %	−5.5 %	6.4 %	4.8 %	7.6 %	£1,142.37	£54.97	−1,568.06	−12,081.34	−898.44	−£162.34	−£56.11	−£380.73
30 p minimum price beers only	−0.2 %	0.1 %	−0.9 %	1.0 %	0.5 %	1.3 %	£168.53	£25.98	−47.27	−349.84	10.34	−£6.11	£0.77	−£83.64
Ban off trade discounting if >50 %	0.0 %	0.0 %	0.0 %	0.0 %	0.0 %	0.0 %	£0.98	−£0.02	−2.34	−17.55	−0.02	−£0.23	−£0.01	−£0.29
Ban off trade discounting if >20 %	−0.8 %	−0.5 %	−0.8 %	0.6 %	0.5 %	0.6 %	£116.37	−£11.10	−334.69	−2,563.34	−95.93	−£32.73	−£5.91	−£56.75
Total ban off trade discounting	−2.7 %	−1.9 %	−3.0 %	2.0 %	1.6 %	2.2 %	£411.86	−£43.76	−1,163.53	−8,932.99	−401.54	−£115.34	−£24.40	−£210.58
Ban off trade discount if reg price <30 p	0.0 %	0.0 %	−0.1 %	0.1 %	0.1 %	0.2 %	£18.91	£2.38	−10.75	−80.44	−0.83	−£1.15	−£0.06	−£7.51
Total advertising ban	−26.9 %	−26.9 %	−26.9 %	−26.9 %	−26.9 %	−26.9 %	−£3,316.38	−£1,708.74	−8,233.53	−69,551.49	−10,345.33	−£926.52	−£620.79	−£1,828.96
10 % reduction in outlet density	13.2 %	11.5 %	14.1 %	9.8 %	6.7 %	12.4 %	£1,114.85	£715.02	5,219.57	42,560.96	4,454.37	£559.03	£256.34	£1,217.50
10 % reduction in licensing hours	−1.2 %	−1.2 %	−1.2 %	−1.2 %	−1.2 %	−1.2 %	−£146.49	−£75.48	−417.42	−3,463.39	−466.20	−£45.32	−£27.96	−£94.07