TABLE 2.
Hierarchical Age–Period–Cohort Models for Premature Mortality: US White Population, 1960–2009, in Relation to Jim Crow Polity, State, County, and County Income Quintile
| Model 1
|
Model 2
|
Model 3
|
Model 4
|
Model 5
|
||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (Fixed Age) + (Random Period) + (Random Cohort)
|
Model 1 + (JC × Period) + (JC × Cohort)
|
Model 2 + (Random State)
|
Model 3 + (Random County)
|
Model 4 + (Fixed County Income)
|
||||||
| Exp(β) | (95% CI) | Exp(β) | (95% CI) | Exp(β) | (95% CI) | Exp(β) | (95% CI) | Exp(β) | (95% CI) | |
| Fixed effects | ||||||||||
| Intercept | 0.00 | (0.00–0.00) | 0.00 | (0.00–0.00) | 0.00 | (0.00–0.00) | 0.00 | (0.00–0.00) | 0.00 | (0.00–0.00) |
| Agecat | 0.73 | (0.72–0.74) | 0.73 | (0.72–0.74) | 0.73 | (0.72–0.74) | 0.73 | (0.72–0.74) | 0.73 | (0.72–0.74) |
| Agecat2 | 1.04 | (1.04–1.04) | 1.04 | (1.04–1.04) | 1.04 | (1.04–1.04) | 1.04 | (1.04–1.04) | 1.04 | (1.04–1.04) |
| Jim Crow polity | 1.09 | (1.05–1.13) | 1.15 | (1.08–1.22) | 1.18 | (1.07–1.29) | 1.16 | (1.06–1.27) | ||
| Income quintile | ||||||||||
| 1 (lowest) | 1.08 | (1.07–1.08) | ||||||||
| 2 | 1.07 | (1.07–1.08) | ||||||||
| 3 | 1.05 | (1.05–1.06) | ||||||||
| 4 | 1.03 | (1.03–1.03) | ||||||||
| 5 (highest)a | 1.00 | |||||||||
| Period effects | ||||||||||
| 1960–1964 | 1.52 | (1.30–1.78) | 1.55 | (1.31–1.83) | 1.52 | (1.29–1.79) | 1.42 | (1.21–1.67) | 1.43 | (1.21–1.68) |
| 1965–1969 | 1.39 | (1.19–1.62) | 1.43 | (1.21–1.69) | 1.42 | (1.21–1.67) | 1.39 | (1.19–1.63) | 1.39 | (1.19–1.64) |
| 1970–1974 | 1.21 | (1.04–1.41) | 1.21 | (1.03–1.42) | 1.21 | (1.03–1.42) | 1.22 | (1.04–1.43) | 1.22 | (1.04–1.43) |
| 1975–1979 | 1.06 | (0.91–1.23) | 1.07 | (0.91–1.25) | 1.07 | (0.91–1.25) | 1.08 | (0.92–1.26) | 1.08 | (0.92–1.26) |
| 1980–1984 | 0.95 | (0.82–1.10) | 0.96 | (0.81–1.12) | 0.96 | (0.82–1.12) | 0.97 | (0.83–1.13) | 0.97 | (0.83–1.13) |
| 1985–1989 | 0.91 | (0.78–1.06) | 0.92 | (0.78–1.08) | 0.93 | (0.79–1.08) | 0.94 | (0.80–1.09) | 0.94 | (0.80–1.10) |
| 1990–1994 | 0.88 | (0.76–1.02) | 0.89 | (0.76–1.04) | 0.89 | (0.76–1.04) | 0.90 | (0.77–1.05) | 0.90 | (0.77–1.05) |
| 1995–1999 | 0.83 | (0.71–0.96) | 0.82 | (0.70–0.97) | 0.82 | (0.70–0.97) | 0.83 | (0.71–0.98) | 0.83 | (0.71–0.97) |
| 2000–2004 | 0.80 | (0.68–0.93) | 0.77 | (0.65–0.91) | 0.78 | (0.66–0.91) | 0.78 | (0.67–0.92) | 0.78 | (0.67–0.92) |
| 2005–2009 | 0.74 | (0.63–0.87) | 0.71 | (0.60–0.84) | 0.71 | (0.60–0.84) | 0.72 | (0.61–0.84) | 0.72 | (0.61–0.84) |
| JC × period (NJC) | ||||||||||
| 1960–1964 | 0.99 | (0.97–1.02) | 1.01 | (0.98–1.03) | 1.05 | (1.02–1.08) | 1.04 | (1.01–1.08) | ||
| 1965–1969 | 0.96 | (0.94–0.98) | 0.96 | (0.94–0.98) | 0.97 | (0.94–1.00) | 0.97 | (0.94–1.00) | ||
| 1970–1974 | 1.03 | (1.00–1.05) | 1.02 | (1.00–1.05) | 1.01 | (0.98–1.04) | 1.01 | (0.98–1.04) | ||
| 1975–1979 | 1.00 | (0.98–1.02) | 1.00 | (0.97–1.02) | 0.98 | (0.96–1.01) | 0.98 | (0.96–1.01) | ||
| 1980–1984 | 0.98 | (0.96–1.01) | 0.98 | (0.96–1.00) | 0.97 | (0.94–1.00) | 0.97 | (0.94–1.00) | ||
| 1985–1989 | 0.96 | (0.93–0.98) | 0.95 | (0.93–0.98) | 0.95 | (0.92–0.98) | 0.95 | (0.92–0.98) | ||
| 1990–1994 | 0.96 | (0.94–0.99) | 0.96 | (0.94–0.99) | 0.96 | (0.93–0.99) | 0.96 | (0.93–0.99) | ||
| 1995–1999 | 1.00 | (0.98–1.02) | 1.00 | (0.98–1.02) | 1.00 | (0.97–1.03) | 1.00 | (0.97–1.03) | ||
| 2000–2004 | 1.04 | (1.02–1.07) | 1.04 | (1.02–1.07) | 1.04 | (1.01–1.08) | 1.05 | (1.02–1.08) | ||
| 2005–2009 | 1.08 | (1.05–1.10) | 1.08 | (1.05–1.10) | 1.08 | (1.04–1.11) | 1.08 | (1.05–1.11) | ||
| Cohort effects | ||||||||||
| 1901–1905 | 0.82 | (0.71–0.94) | 0.83 | (0.73–0.95) | 0.83 | (0.72–0.94) | 0.80 | (0.72–0.89) | 0.80 | (0.72–0.89) |
| 1906–1910 | 0.94 | (0.82–1.06) | 0.96 | (0.84–1.08) | 0.95 | (0.84–1.08) | 0.93 | (0.84–1.03) | 0.93 | (0.84–1.03) |
| 1911–1915 | 1.05 | (0.94–1.19) | 1.07 | (0.95–1.20) | 1.07 | (0.95–1.20) | 1.05 | (0.96–1.15) | 1.05 | (0.96–1.15) |
| 1916–1920 | 1.02 | (0.92–1.14) | 1.03 | (0.93–1.15) | 1.03 | (0.93–1.15) | 1.02 | (0.94–1.11) | 1.02 | (0.94–1.11) |
| 1921–1925 | 1.10 | (1.00–1.22) | 1.10 | (1.00–1.22) | 1.10 | (1.00–1.22) | 1.10 | (1.02–1.19) | 1.10 | (1.02–1.19) |
| 1926–1930 | 1.11 | (1.01–1.22) | 1.10 | (1.00–1.20) | 1.10 | (1.00–1.20) | 1.10 | (1.02–1.18) | 1.10 | (1.02–1.18) |
| 1931–1935 | 1.07 | (0.98–1.17) | 1.06 | (0.97–1.15) | 1.06 | (0.97–1.15) | 1.06 | (0.99–1.13) | 1.06 | (0.99–1.13) |
| 1936–1940 | 1.03 | (0.95–1.12) | 1.01 | (0.94–1.09) | 1.01 | (0.94–1.10) | 1.02 | (0.95–1.08) | 1.02 | (0.95–1.08) |
| 1941–1945 | 0.98 | (0.91–1.06) | 0.97 | (0.90–1.05) | 0.98 | (0.90–1.05) | 0.98 | (0.92–1.04) | 0.98 | (0.92–1.04) |
| 1946–1950 | 0.96 | (0.89–1.03) | 0.95 | (0.89–1.02) | 0.95 | (0.89–1.02) | 0.96 | (0.91–1.02) | 0.96 | (0.91–1.02) |
| 1951–1955 | 1.05 | (0.97–1.12) | 1.03 | (0.96–1.10) | 1.03 | (0.96–1.11) | 1.04 | (0.98–1.10) | 1.04 | (0.98–1.10) |
| 1956–1960 | 1.02 | (0.95–1.09) | 0.98 | (0.92–1.06) | 0.99 | (0.92–1.06) | 1.00 | (0.94–1.05) | 1.00 | (0.94–1.05) |
| 1961–1965 | 1.30 | (1.20–1.34) | 1.29 | (1.20–1.38) | 1.29 | (1.20–1.39) | 1.30 | (1.23–1.38) | 1.30 | (1.23–1.38) |
| 1966–1970 | 1.21 | (1.12–1.30) | 1.20 | (1.12–1.29) | 1.20 | (1.12–1.30) | 1.21 | (1.14–1.28) | 1.21 | (1.14–1.28) |
| 1971–1975 | 1.12 | (1.04–1.22) | 1.11 | (1.02–1.20) | 1.11 | (1.02–1.20) | 1.11 | (1.04–1.18) | 1.11 | (1.04–1.18) |
| 1976–1980 | 1.06 | (0.97–1.16) | 1.05 | (0.96–1.14) | 1.05 | (0.96–1.14) | 1.05 | (0.98–1.12) | 1.05 | (0.98–1.12) |
| 1981–1985 | 1.01 | (0.92–1.11) | 0.99 | (0.91–1.09) | 0.99 | (0.91–1.09) | 1.00 | (0.93–1.07) | 1.00 | (0.93–1.07) |
| 1986–1990 | 0.91 | (0.82–1.00) | 0.90 | (0.81–0.99) | 0.90 | (0.81–0.99) | 0.90 | (0.84–0.98) | 0.90 | (0.84–0.98) |
| 1991–1995 | 0.77 | (0.69–0.86) | 0.78 | (0.70–0.86) | 0.77 | (0.70–0.86) | 0.78 | (0.72–0.85) | 0.78 | (0.72–0.85) |
| 1996–2000 | 0.64 | (0.57–0.72) | 0.66 | (0.59–0.75) | 0.66 | (0.59–0.74) | 0.67 | (0.61–0.73) | 0.67 | (0.61–0.73) |
| 2001–2005 | 0.81 | (0.71–0.92) | 0.84 | (0.74–0.95) | 0.83 | (0.74–0.94) | 0.84 | (0.76–0.93) | 0.84 | (0.76–0.93) |
| 2006–2009 | 1.32 | (1.15–1.52) | 1.37 | (1.20–1.56) | 1.36 | (1.19–1.56) | 1.37 | (1.23–1.52) | 1.37 | (1.23–1.52) |
| JC × cohort (NJC) | ||||||||||
| 1901–1905 | 0.86 | (0.83–0.88) | 0.86 | (0.84–0.89) | 0.88 | (0.86–0.90) | 0.88 | (0.86–0.90) | ||
| 1906–1910 | 0.86 | (0.84–0.89) | 0.86 | (0.84–0.89) | 0.87 | (0.85–0.89) | 0.87 | (0.85–0.89) | ||
| 1911–1915 | 0.89 | (0.86–0.91) | 0.89 | (0.87–0.92) | 0.89 | (0.87–0.92) | 0.89 | (0.87–0.92) | ||
| 1916–1920 | 0.93 | (0.90–0.95) | 0.93 | (0.90–0.96) | 0.93 | (0.91–0.95) | 0.93 | (0.91–0.95) | ||
| 1921–1925 | 0.96 | (0.93–0.99) | 0.96 | (0.93–0.99) | 0.96 | (0.94–0.98) | 0.96 | (0.94–0.98) | ||
| 1926–1930 | 0.99 | (0.96–1.02) | 0.99 | (0.96–1.02) | 0.99 | (0.96–1.01) | 0.99 | (0.96–1.01) | ||
| 1931–1935 | 1.01 | (0.98–1.04) | 1.01 | (0.98–1.04) | 1.01 | (0.98–1.03) | 1.01 | (0.98–1.03) | ||
| 1936–1940 | 1.02 | (0.99–1.05) | 1.02 | (0.99–1.05) | 1.02 | (0.99–1.04) | 1.02 | (0.99–1.04) | ||
| 1941–1945 | 1.01 | (0.98–1.04) | 1.01 | (0.98–1.04) | 1.01 | (0.98–1.03) | 1.01 | (0.98–1.03) | ||
| 1946–1950 | 1.00 | (0.98–1.04) | 1.00 | (0.97–1.03) | 1.00 | (0.98–1.02) | 1.00 | (0.98–1.02) | ||
| 1951–1955 | 1.05 | (1.02–1.08) | 1.04 | (1.02–1.08) | 1.04 | (1.02–1.07) | 1.04 | (1.02–1.07) | ||
| 1956–1960 | 1.10 | (1.06–1.13) | 1.09 | (1.06–1.12) | 1.09 | (1.06–1.11) | 1.09 | (1.06–1.11) | ||
| 1961–1965 | 1.04 | (1.01–1.07) | 1.04 | (1.01–1.07) | 1.03 | (1.01–1.06) | 1.03 | (1.01–1.06) | ||
| 1966–1970 | 1.04 | (1.01–1.07) | 1.04 | (1.01–1.07) | 1.04 | (1.01–1.06) | 1.04 | (1.01–1.06) | ||
| 1971–1975 | 1.07 | (1.04–1.10) | 1.07 | (1.04–1.10) | 1.07 | (1.04–1.09) | 1.07 | (1.04–1.09) | ||
| 1976–1980 | 1.06 | (1.03–1.10) | 1.06 | (1.03–1.09) | 1.06 | (1.04–1.09) | 1.06 | (1.04–1.09) | ||
| 1981–1985 | 1.09 | (1.06–1.12) | 1.08 | (1.05–1.12) | 1.08 | (1.06–1.11) | 1.08 | (1.06–1.11) | ||
| 1986–1990 | 1.08 | (1.04–1.11) | 1.07 | (1.04–1.10) | 1.07 | (1.05–1.10) | 1.07 | (1.05–1.10) | ||
| 1991–1995 | 1.04 | (1.01–1.07) | 1.04 | (1.01–1.07) | 1.04 | (1.01–1.06) | 1.04 | (1.01–1.06) | ||
| 1996–2000 | 0.99 | (0.96–1.02) | 0.99 | (0.96–1.02) | 0.99 | (0.96–1.01) | 0.99 | (0.96–1.02) | ||
| 2001–2005 | 0.99 | (0.96–1.02) | 0.99 | (0.96–1.02) | 0.99 | (0.96–1.02) | 0.99 | (0.96–1.02) | ||
| 2006–2009 | 0.99 | (0.96–1.02) | 0.99 | (0.96–1.02) | 0.99 | (0.97–1.02) | 0.99 | (0.97–1.02) | ||
| Variance components | ||||||||||
| Est. | SE | Est. | SE | Est. | SE | Est. | SE | Est. | SE | |
| Period | 0.08 | 0.040 | 0.09 | 0.05 | 0.09 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 0.03 | 0.06 | 0.03 |
| Period × JC | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 | ||
| Cohort | 0.04 | 0.013 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| Cohort × JC | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| State | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.01 | ||||
| County | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.00 | ||||||
| Pseudo-BIC | ||||||||||
| 1,129,339 | 904,290 | 823,544 | 12,304 | 0 | ||||||
JC indicates Jim Crow polity; NJC, non-Jim Crow polity; agecat and agecat2, age and its quadratic term; BIC, Bayesian information criterion.
a
Reference category.