Table 3.

Transition models of the cumulative effect of each variable at the previous wave on Wave 4 drinking with submodels for work, residence, and school status

	30-day drinking as the outcome
Variable	Full model OR [95% CI]	Submodel 1a OR [95% CI]	Submodel 2a OR [95% CI]	Submodel 3a OR [95% CI]
Gender
Male (ref.)
Female	0.88 [0.74, 1.03]	0.89 [0.76, 1.05]	0.87 [0.74, 1.03]	0.88 [0.75, 1.04]
Race/ethnicity
White (ref.)
African American	0.68 [0.51, 0.89]**	0.67 [0.50, 0.89]**	0.67 [0.51, 0.88]**	0.67 [0.51, 0.89]**
Hispanic	0.73 [0.58, 0.91]**	0.70 [0.55, 0.89]**	0.72 [0.57, 0.90]**	0.71 [0.57, 0.89]**
Other	0.76 [0.37, 1.57]	0.75 [0.36, 1.52]	0.76 [0.37, 1.56]	0.74 [0.36, 1.54]
Family structure
Both biological parents (ref.)
Biological and stepparent	1.06 [0.82, 1.37]	1.05 [0.82, 1.35]	1.05 [0.81, 1.36]	1.07 [0.83, 1.37]
Single parent	1.03 [0.82, 1.30]	1.03 [0.82, 1.29]	1.02 [0.81, 1.29]	1.03 [0.81, 1.30]
Other	1.08 [0.80, 1.44]	1.05 [0.77, 1.43]	1.06 [0.78, 1.42]	1.08 [0.81, 1.44]
Parental education
High school or less (ref.)
Some college	1.01 [0.83, 1.25]	1.03 [0.84, 1.27]	1.02 [0.83, 1.26]	1.01 [0.82, 1.25]
Bachelor’s degree or higher	1.03 [0.81, 1.30]	1.11 [0.87, 1.41]	1.04 [0.82, 1.32]	1.04 [0.82, 1.32]
Alcohol use in previous wave
No (ref.)
Yes	5.48 [4.21, 7.14]***	5.41 [4.15, 7.04]***	5.43 [4.16, 7.09]***	5.52 [4.25, 7.17]***
Wave
2 (ref.)
3	1.34 [1.10, 1.63]**	1.34 [1.10, 1.62]**	1.34 [1.10, 1.62]**	1.34 [1.10, 1.63]**
4	2.04 [1.31, 3.16]***	2.36 [1.79, 3.11]***	1.73 [1.39, 2.14]***	3.48 [2.55, 4.74]***
Depressive symptoms, previous	1.08 [0.97, 1.19]	1.07 [0.97, 1.17]	1.07 [0.97, 1.19]	1.07 [0.97, 1.18]
Parental knowledge, previous	0.93 [0.77, 1.13]	0.93 [0.77, 1.13]	0.93 [0.77, 1.13]	0.93 [0.77, 1.13]
Parental expectations, previous	0.91 [0.87, 0.95]***	0.92 [0.88, 0.96]***	0.91 [0.87, 0.95]***	0.91 [0.87, 0.95]***
5 friends drinking, previous
Never (ref.)
Almost never/sometimes	1.67 [1.38, 2.02]***	1.71 [1.41, 2.06]***	1.69 [1.40, 2.03]***	1.69 [1.40, 2.03]***
Often/always	3.25 [2.19, 4.83]***	3.31 [2.23, 4.92]***	3.26 [2.19, 4.84]***	3.26 [2.20, 4.84]***
Working status at Wave 4
Not working (ref.)
20 hours or less weekly	1.13 [0.69, 1.85]	1.06 [0.66, 1.70]	–	–
21–30 hours weekly	1.16 [0.80, 1.68]	0.84 [0.59, 1.19]	–	–
>30 hours weekly	1.48 [0.95, 2.33]	1.01 [0.63, 1.61]	–	–
Residential status at Wave 4
Home (ref.)
On campus	2.10 [1.40, 3.15]***	–	2.53 [1.82, 3.53]***	–
Own place	1.30 [0.93, 1.83]	–	1.36 [0.96, 1.93]	–
School status at Wave 4
College/university (ref.)
Technical school/community college	0.73 [0.48, 1.10]	–	–	0.50 [0.36, 0.71]***
Not attending	0.65 [0.40, 1.06]	–	–	0.49 [0.32, 0.73]***

Notes: Ref. = referent.

^aEach submodel includes only one environmental variable, without inclusion or adjustment for the other environmental variables.

^**p < .01;

^***p < .001.