Table 6.

Comparing model support with the Bayes factor. Bayes factors were calculated as described in the BayesTraits manual: BF=2(ln LhA−ln LhB), where ln Lhx is the marginal likelihood from the harmonic mean of the post-convergence. The plant family Lamiaceae is the most likely ancestral host at the root of the core Chrysolina clade with the highest harmonic mean. The right column indicates the Bayes factor compared against Lamiaceae as the favoured ancestral host. * Indicates positive evidence, ** indicates strong evidence, and *** indicates very strong evidence for the favoured hypothesis.

Host plant family	ln Lh	Bayes Factor
Apiaceae	-62.77	5.27**
Apocynaceae	-63.78	7.30**
Asteraceae	-65.71	11.16***
Hypericaceae	-65.59	10.92***
Lamiaceae	-60.13	-
Plantaginaceae	-62.44	4.61*
Ranunculaceae	-62.57	4.86*
Scrophulariaceae	-63.24	6.20**