Table 2.
Summary of select existing type 2 diabetes prediction models and characteristics of original cohort
| Study/version | N | Average follow-up (years) | Baseline for model development | Population sample | Variables | Outcome ascertainment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARIC: clinical model plus fasting glucose and lipids | 7,915 | 9 | 1987–1989 | 85% white, 15% AA | Age, race, waist circumference, height, parental history of diabetes, HDL cholesterol, triglycerides, fasting glucose, systolic blood pressure | Elevated 2-h glucose, elevated fasting glucose, diabetes medications, or report of a clinical diagnosis during follow-up |
| Framingham: multivariate prediction with continuous variables | 3,140 | 7 | Mid-1990s | 99% white, 0% AA | Age, sex, BMI, waist circumference, parent history of diabetes, HDL cholesterol, triglycerides, fasting glucose, systolic blood pressure | Diabetes medications or elevated fasting glucose |
| San Antonio Heart Study: clinical model with no 2-h glucose | 3,004 | 7.5 | 1979–1982, 1984–1988 | 61% Mexican American, 39% white, 0% AA | Age, sex, Mexican American ethnicity, BMI, family history of diabetes, HDL cholesterol, fasting glucose, systolic blood pressure | Diabetes medications, elevated fasting glucose, elevated 2-h glucose, or self-report of physician diagnosis |
Prediction models used to calculate probability (diabetes) = exp(x) / [1 + exp(x)]. ARIC study logistic regression model: x = −9.9808 + 0.0173 * age in years + 0.4433 * AA race + 0.4981 * 1; if parent history of diabetes is present, + 0.0880 * fasting glucose in mg/dL + 0.0111 * systolic blood pressure in mmHg + 0.0273 * waist circumference in cm − 0.0326 * height in cm − 0.0122 * HDL cholesterol in mg/dL + 0.00271 * triglycerides in mg/dL. Framingham Study logistic regression model: x = −18.607 − 0.0101 * age in years − 0.4308 * sex (1 if male, 0 if female) + 0.4383 * 1 if parent history of diabetes; if present, + 0.03922 * BMI + 0.001 * systolic blood pressure in mmHg − 0.0488 * HDL in mg/dL + 0.0488 * waist circumference in cm + 0.1398 * fasting glucose in mg/dL. San Antonio Heart Study logistic regression model: x = −13.415 + 0.028 * age in years + 0.661 * sex (1 if female, 0 if male) + 0.412 * 1 if Mexican American (all 0 for this study) + 0.079 * fasting glucose in mg/dL + 0.018 * systolic blood pressure in mmHg − 0.039 * HDL in mg/dL + 0.070 * BMI + 0.481 * 1 if family history of diabetes is present.