Table 4.
Individual predictors of attrition in multicountry retention study
| N | Retention proportion |
Hazard ratio (95% CI) |
P-value† | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 year | 2 years | 3 years | ||||
| Total | 4147 | |||||
| Demographics | ||||||
| Age at start ART | ||||||
| 18–29 years | 901 | 77.4 | 69.7 | 62.8 | 1 | 0.001 |
| ≥30 years | 3236 | 79.1 | 71.7 | 67.0 | 0.81 (0.71, 0.92) | |
| Sex | ||||||
| Female | 2670 | 80.6 | 73.6 | 68.5 | 1 | <0.001 |
| Male | 1476 | 75.1 | 67.1 | 61.4 | 1.26 (1.13, 1.41) | |
| Distance to clinic (/10 km) | – | – | – | 1.03 (1.01, 1.05) | 0.007 | |
| ART-related and other treatment related predictors | ||||||
| Prior ART experience | ||||||
| No | 3895 | 78.8 | 71.4 | 66.1 | 0.86 (0.68, 1.08) | |
| Yes | 252 | 76.9 | 68.5 | 63.5 | 1 | 0.187 |
| Prior exposure to NVP for PMTCT | ||||||
| No | 1753 | 79.9 | 73.0 | 67.3 | 1 | 0.326 |
| Yes | 180 | 92.1 | 84.5 | 80.0 | 0.78 (0.53, 1.13) | |
| Missing | 738 | 75.1 | 67.1 | 61.4 | 0.92 (0.77, 1.11) | |
| Years since ART started at programme (/year) | – | – | – | 1.10 (1.05, 1.15) | <0.001 | |
| TB treatment | ||||||
| No | 3327 | 80.3 | 73.4 | 68.9 | 1 | 0.131 |
| Yes | 386 | 75.8 | 67.6 | 59.0 | 1.11 (0.92, 1.33) | |
| Missing | 434 | 68.8 | 58.8 | 51.1 | 1.17 (0.99, 1.39) | |
| CTX prophylaxis | ||||||
| No | 693 | 80.4 | 73.3 | 68.5 | 0.96 (0.82, 1.12) | |
| Yes | 2891 | 76.3 | 69.2 | 62.7 | 1 | 0.810 |
| Missing | 563 | 72.8 | 63.4 | 57.7 | 1.02 (0.86, 1.20) | |
| Clinical Characteristics at ART start | ||||||
| WHO stage at start ART | ||||||
| I & II | 1334 | 86.9 | 80.0 | 73.6 | 1 | <0.001 |
| III | 1600 | 78.5 | 70.8 | 65.8 | 1.20 (1.03, 1.39) | |
| IV | 597 | 62.5 | 55.5 | 52.4 | 1.98 (1.66, 2.37) | |
| Missing | 616 | 76.6 | 68.8 | 62.9 | 1.29 (1.07, 1.55) | |
| Functional status | ||||||
| Working/active | 2140 | 84.0 | 77.8 | 72.8 | 1 | <0.001 |
| Ambulatory | 686 | 66.2 | 54.6 | 48.4 | 1.69 (1.45, 1.97) | |
| Bedridden | 115 | 51.4 | 47.4 | 44.7 | 2.61 (2.00, 3.41) | |
| Missing | 1206 | 78.9 | 71.5 | 66.0 | 1.28 (1.10, 1.50) | |
| CD4 (log) | – | – | – | 0.64 (0.49, 0.84) | <0.001 | |
| TLC (cells/µl) | ||||||
| <1200 cells/µl | 581 | 72.7 | 65.0 | 58.2 | 1.21 (1.00, 1.46) | |
| ≥1200 cells/µl | 817 | 76.6 | 68.7 | 63.7 | 1 | <0.001 |
| Missing | 2749 | 80.6 | 73.4 | 68.3 | 0.86 (0.74, 1.01) | |
| Haemoglobin (g/dl) | ||||||
| <10 g/dl | 803 | 69.3 | 61.9 | 57.3 | 1.43 (1.23, 1.67) | |
| ≥10 g/dl | 1545 | 84.1 | 77.3 | 72.1 | 1 | <0.001 |
| Missing | 1799 | 78.2 | 70.3 | 64.7 | 0.93 (0.81, 1.08) | |
| Weight loss >10% | ||||||
| No | 3306 | 80.3 | 73.2 | 67.8 | 1 | <0.001 |
| Yes | 841 | 72.1 | 63.8 | 58.7 | 1.32 (1.13, 1.54) | |
| Chronic diarrhoea >1 month | ||||||
| No | 3665 | 79.3 | 71.8 | 66.2 | 1 | 0.651 |
| Yes | 482 | 74.0 | 67.4 | 64.1 | 1.04 (0.87, 1.26) | |
| Fever >1 month | ||||||
| No | 3534 | 79.9 | 72.7 | 67.0 | 1 | 0.062 |
| Yes | 613 | 71.7 | 63.1 | 59.8 | 1.16 (0.99, 1.36) | |
| Oral candidiasis | ||||||
| No | 3878 | 79.1 | 71.4 | 66.4 | 1 | 0.051 |
| Yes | 269 | 72.2 | 69.3 | 60.7 | 1.24 (1.00, 1.54) | |
| Wasting syndrome | ||||||
| No | 3938 | 79.7 | 72.2 | 66.8 | 1 | <0.001 |
| Yes | 209 | 59.1 | 54.0 | 50.5 | 2.0 (1.56, 2.57) | |
| Pulmonary TB | ||||||
| No | 3656 | 79.0 | 71.4 | 66.2 | 1 | 0.965 |
| Yes | 491 | 76.3 | 69.9 | 64.2 | 1.00 (0.85, 1.19) | |
ART, antiretroviral treatment; CI, confidence interval; PMTCT, prevention mother-to-child transmission; NVP, nevirapine; CTX, co-trimoxazole; TLC, total lymphocyte count; TB, tuberculosis.
Wasting syndrome: weight loss of >10%, unexplained chronic diarrhoea >1 month and unexplained fever >1 month.
Data are missing for age and gender when the total number of patient was less than 4147.
†
P-value from univariate Cox regression models describing the effects of each individual predictor without correction for other factors, adjusting for site using shared frailty methods.