Table 1.
Electrocardiographic Predictors of Incident Atrial Fibrillation in the General Population—Data from Prospective Cohorts
| Predictor | Risk Estimate (95% CI) | P Value | Study |
|---|---|---|---|
| Prolonged PR interval | HR, 1.11 (1.02–1.22)a | 0.02 | FHS (n = 7575)16 |
| HR, 1.41 (1.20–1.65)a | – | ARIC study (n = 15,429)17 | |
| HR, 1.13 (1.04–1.23)a | 0.005 | Health ABC study (n = 2722)18 | |
| HR, 1.26 (1.17–1.35)b | <0.001 | Copenhagen ECG study (n = 288,181)19 | |
| HR, 1.29 (0.68–2.44)c | 0.434 | Busselton Health study (n = 4267)25 | |
| Short PR interval | HR, 1.21 (1.06–1.37)b | 0.004 | Copenhagen ECG study (n = 288,181)19 |
| HR, 6.21 (1.52–25.31)c | 0.011 | Busselton Health study (n = 4267)25 | |
| Prolonged P wave duration | HR, 1.79 (1.51–2.14)a | – | ARIC study (n = 15,429)17 |
| HR, 1.15 (0.90–1.47)a | 0.27 | FHS (n = 1550)30 | |
| HR, 2.06 (1.89–2.23)d | <0.001 | Copenhagen ECG study (n = 285,933)31 | |
| Short P wave duration | HR, 1.60 (1.41–1.81)d | <0.001 | Copenhagen ECG study (n = 285,933)31 |
| P wave terminal force (PTFV1) | HR, 1.23 (1.04–1.46)a | – | ARIC study (n = 15,429)17 |
| P′ deep terminal negativity | HR, 5.02 (3.23–7.80) | <0.0001 | ARIC study (n = 15,376)37 |
| Prolonged QT interval | HR, 1.44 (1.24–1.66)e | < 0.001 | Copenhagen ECG study (n = 281,277)57 |
| HR, 1.99 (1.37–2.89)f | <0.001 | ARIC study (n = 14,538)58 | |
| HR, 1.57 (1.18–2.07)f | 0.002 | CHS (n = 4745)58 | |
| HR, 1.42 (1.003–2.02)f | 0.048 | Health ABC study (n = 2396)58 | |
| Short QT interval | HR, 1.45 (1.14–1.84)e | 0.002 | Copenhagen ECG study (n = 281,277)57 |
| HR, 0.84 (0.66–1.06)f | 0.14 | ARIC study (n = 14,538)58 | |
| HR, 1.09 (0.81–1.47)f | 0.57 | CHS (n = 4745)58 | |
| HR, 1.37 (0.92–2.04)f | 0.12 | Health ABC study (n = 2396)58 | |
| ECG‐LVH | HR, 1.4 (0.9–2.4) for men, HR 1.3 (0.9–2.1) for women | NS, NS | FHS (n = 2090 men, 2641 women)59 |
| HR, 1.39 (1.11–1.75)c | 0.05 | Niigata Preventive Medicine Study (n = 63,386)60 | |
| HR, 2.24 (1.33–3.76)g | 0.002 | MESA (n = 4942)61 | |
| Any ectopy (PACs or | HR, 2.52 (1.84–3.44)h | <0.001 | Niigata Preventive Medicine Study (n = 63,386)60 |
| PVCs) | HR, 3.49 (2.40–5.08)i | <0.001 | Niigata Preventive Medicine Study (n = 63,386)60 |
| Atrial ectopy (PACs) | HR, 1.49 (1.02 – 2.17)j | 0.038 | Copenhagen Holter Study (n = 678)65 |
| HR, 1.17 (1.13 – 1.22)k | <0.001 | CHS (n = 1260)66 | |
| HR, 1.38 (1.14 – 1.68)k | 0.001 | Malmö Diet and Cancer Study (n = 383)67 | |
| Ventricular ectopy (PVCs) | HR, 1.56 (1.30–1.87)l | – | ARIC study (n = 14,783)68 |
| HR, 1.38 (0.94–2.03)m | 0.101 | Taipei Veterans General Hospital Database (n = 3351)69 | |
| HR, 1.55 (1.06–2.26)n | 0.024 | Taipei Veterans General Hospital Database (n = 3351)69 |
All results presented are those of multivariable‐adjusted analyses. Covariates differ between studies.
HR per standard deviation change.
PR interval defined as prolonged if ≥200 milliseconds, and compared to reference group with PR interval 150–161 milliseconds (40th to 60th percentile). Short PR interval defined as PR interval <123 milliseconds (<5th percentile), compared to reference group with PR interval 150–161 milliseconds (40–60th percentile).
PR interval duration or LVH defined by Minnesota code.
P wave prolongation defined as P wave duration ≥130 milliseconds (≥95th percentile); short P wave duration defined as P wave duration ≤89 milliseconds (<5th percentile); both are compared to those with P wave duration 100–105 milliseconds (20th to <40th percentile).
QT interval corrected by Framingham formula with prolongation defined as QTc ≥ 464 milliseconds (≥99th percentile) and shortening defined as ≤372 milliseconds (≤1st percentile), compared to the reference group with QTc 411–419 milliseconds (40th to <60th percentiles).
QT interval corrected by Framingham formula: defined as prolonged if ≥460 milliseconds in women and ≥450 milliseconds in men, and defined short if ≤390 milliseconds.
LVH defined as Sokolow‐Lyon voltage product ≥371,000 μV·ms, where the Sokolow‐Lyon voltage is calculated as (SV1 + RV5/RV6) × QRS duration.
Low‐frequency ectopy, defined as <10% of total beats (taken from a single 10 seconds ECG recording).
High‐frequency ectopy, defined as >10% of total beats (taken from a single 10 seconds ECG recording).
HR for admission for AF, per each increment of 10 supraventricular ectopic complex per hour.
HR per log‐unit increase in ectopy: increased hazard per doubling in ectopic beats per hour.
Ventricular ectopy defined as any PVC detected on a 2‐minute rhythm strip.
Ventricular ectopy defined as uniform PVCs noted on a 24‐hour ambulatory ECG recording.
Ventricular ectopy defined as multiform PVCs noted on a 24‐hour ambulatory ECG recording.