The model described in this article makes predictions for Japanese smokers making multiple quit attempts, based on individual smoker profiles, sequences of smoking cessation strategies, time intervals between quit attempts and relapse.

Increased utilisation of smoking cessation pharmacotherapy to support quit attempts is predicted to lead to an increase in the number of smokers achieving abstinence and provide improvements in health outcomes over a lifetime with no additional costs.

The Japanese public health insurance system covers counselling and prescription medications to support a quit attempt; however, the current eligibility criteria for these services limit access to these services. Expanding public funding for smoking cessation therapy to allow greater access to smoking cessation pharmacotherapy may be worthwhile.