Table 1. Description of parameters and notation in the model.
| Parameter | Description | Typical values | Reference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Constant rates | ||||
| μH | Mortality rate for residents in Guangzhou (day-1) | 3.5×10−5 | [36–38] | |
| αH | Population growth rate in Guangzhou (day-1) | 8.1×10−5 | [36–38] | |
| ξ | Sex ratio of Ae. albopictus at the emergence (dimensionless) | 0.5 | [45,46] | |
| Parameters need to be estimated | ||||
| μE | Egg mortality rate (day-1) | 0–0.1 | [47] | |
| θ | The ratio of minimum egg hatching rate to ideal egg hatching rate (dimensionless) | 0–1 | To our best knowledge | |
| λ | The ratio of minimum larvae development rate to ideal larvae development rate (dimensionless) | 0–1 | To our best knowledge | |
| ω0 | The maximum heavy rain washout fraction (dimensionless) | 0–1 | To our best knowledge | |
| ωmin | Minimum water level (mm) | 0-ωmax | [27] | |
| ωmax | Maximum water level (mm) | 200–2000 | [27] | |
| πmax | Maxmium carrying capacity for immature stages (mosquito) | 1.0×106−1.2×107 | To our best knowledge | |
| γaem | Duration from emerging adults to adults (day) | 1–7 | [42,46,48] | |
| μem | Mortality during adult emergence (day-1) | 0–0.2 | [47] | |
| σ | The ratio of infected to uninfected immature and mature mosquito death rate (dimensionless) | 1–3 | [49] | |
| ρ | Vertical transmission rate, the proportion of infected eggs laid by infected mosquitoes (dimensionless) | 0–0.2 | [8–10] | |
| τexh | Intrinsic incubation period (day) | 4–8 | [50] | |
| τih | Recovery period (day) | 4–8 | [51] | |
| αvh | Transmission probability from vector to human (dimensionless) | 0–1 | To our best knowledge | |
| αhv | Transmission probability from human to vector (dimensionless) | 0–1 | To our best knowledge | |
| φ | Reporting rate | 0–1 | 1/3.2 in [52] | |
| β2013 | Time for the imported case in 2013 | 521–571 (Jan 1st, 2012 as day 1) a | Outbreak started on Day 561 | |
| β2014 | Time for the imported case in 2014 | 853–903 a | Outbreak started on Day 893 | |
| μa | The survival rate for adults after intervention (day-1) | 0–1 | To our best knowledge | |
| μi | The survival rate for immature stage after intervention (day-1) | 0–1 | To our best knowledge | |
| Temperature-dependent rates (See mathematical expression in S1 File) | ||||
| mP | Temperature-dependent mortality rate for pupa (day-1) | Function (S1 File) | ||
| mA | Temperature forcing mortality rate for adult mosquitoes (day-1) | Function (S1 File) | ||
| fP | Temperature forcing development rate for pupa (day-1) | Function (S1 File) | ||
| fexv | 1/Temperature-dependent EIP (day-1) | Function (S1 File) | ||
| fag | 1/Temperature-dependent duration for gonotrophic cycle (day-1) | Function (S1 File) | ||
| ne | Temperature-dependent eggs per gonotrohpic cycle (per female) | Function (S1 File) | ||
| b | Temperature-dependent biting rate (day-1) | Function (S1 File) | ||
| Temperature- and density-dependent rates (See mathematical expression in S1 File) | ||||
| mL | Temperature- and density-dependent mortality rate for larva (day-1) | Function (S1 File) | ||
| fE | Temperature- and density-dependent egg development rate (day-1) | Function (S1 File) | ||
| fL | Temperature- and density-dependent larvae development rate (day-1) | Function (S1 File) | ||
Some of the parameters do not occur in the flow chart, only in the equations, see S1 File for detailed information.
a The range of timing of the first imported cases equals to the beginning time of local transmission – 15 days (Extrinsic incubation time + intrinsic incubation time in summer) ± 25 days.